Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 04-05-2018, 07:28 AM

Blue Grass Preview

My quick observations take me very much longer to type which I don’t often do as I’m a pecker.

1. Very consistent SR & as distance increases, probably not fast enough at this distance. but will love going longer, may love 1 ¼ or Belmont 1 ½.

2. On the improve with last best, appears too fast early, trainer capable of getting it to rate.

3. Unknown factor, last best with the first B on, top?

4. Great speed and can rate, probably needed last, expect improvement.Bad start in last probably cost several lengths. Shouldn’t be ML 10-1.

5. Has won over the track (Kee). Last best & progressing, 3 of 4 wins. Has already won more than most horses do in a lifetime, top?

6. 2nd race back not running its style and a throwout. Has won at distance. Last race was best despite running positions. On improve, may need longer. Has lost 3 of 4.

7. Improving 3 yr. old. Last best with blinkers on. May have needed blinkers on in previous dirt starts.
Dirt works are excellent. Can handle the switch to the dirt.

8. Last best and improving as 3-year-olds should be. Has lost 3 in a row therefore probably not a Grade 1 horse.

9. Lost 3 in a row & probably not a Grade 1. May need longer, no excuse in last.

10. After a troubled start, the jock rushed up and took it out of his running style Today gets a much better jock. Expect improvement.

11. Did he peak as a 2-year-old in BC? Can he run back to that race or have others already caught up with him?
BC may have been too much. Regardless M/L of 2-1 isn’t worth the risk of unknown form & ability as 3 year old.
Today is a tough race with many improving horses & unknown factors No. at those odds, not worth risk and will just have to beat me at those odds.

12. Has won 5 of 8 on four different types of tracks. Troubled twice in last. Rated in last two so should improve off last.

13. Has great speed and rated in last, showing a new dimension.
An unknown factor. Could be anything. While rated was too far back to be effective but did rate.

14. Unknown factor. Last best and today adds blinkers. Note: only one race on a fast track. Could be anything.

Typical 3 yr. race at this time of year with several unknown factors. Not a prime betting race and not a race to take a short price.

Best of luck. Some scratches before post time may help.

Mitch44

04-05-2018, 07:28 AM	#4
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Blue Grass Preview My quick observations take me very much longer to type which I don’t often do as I’m a pecker. 1. Very consistent SR & as distance increases, probably not fast enough at this distance. but will love going longer, may love 1 ¼ or Belmont 1 ½. 2. On the improve with last best, appears too fast early, trainer capable of getting it to rate. 3. Unknown factor, last best with the first B on, top? 4. Great speed and can rate, probably needed last, expect improvement.Bad start in last probably cost several lengths. Shouldn’t be ML 10-1. 5. Has won over the track (Kee). Last best & progressing, 3 of 4 wins. Has already won more than most horses do in a lifetime, top? 6. 2nd race back not running its style and a throwout. Has won at distance. Last race was best despite running positions. On improve, may need longer. Has lost 3 of 4. 7. Improving 3 yr. old. Last best with blinkers on. May have needed blinkers on in previous dirt starts. Dirt works are excellent. Can handle the switch to the dirt. 8. Last best and improving as 3-year-olds should be. Has lost 3 in a row therefore probably not a Grade 1 horse. 9. Lost 3 in a row & probably not a Grade 1. May need longer, no excuse in last. 10. After a troubled start, the jock rushed up and took it out of his running style Today gets a much better jock. Expect improvement. 11. Did he peak as a 2-year-old in BC? Can he run back to that race or have others already caught up with him? BC may have been too much. Regardless M/L of 2-1 isn’t worth the risk of unknown form & ability as 3 year old. Today is a tough race with many improving horses & unknown factors No. at those odds, not worth risk and will just have to beat me at those odds. 12. Has won 5 of 8 on four different types of tracks. Troubled twice in last. Rated in last two so should improve off last. 13. Has great speed and rated in last, showing a new dimension. An unknown factor. Could be anything. While rated was too far back to be effective but did rate. 14. Unknown factor. Last best and today adds blinkers. Note: only one race on a fast track. Could be anything. Typical 3 yr. race at this time of year with several unknown factors. Not a prime betting race and not a race to take a short price. Best of luck. Some scratches before post time may help. Mitch44 Last edited by Bill V.; 04-05-2018 at 01:40 PM.