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Old 01-10-2019, 09:01 AM   #12
Swifty0x0
Grade 3
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 50
I understand exactly what you're saying. This is why I posed the question because the formula, as written, does not account for a multiple bet (i.e. EV 1.0 does not equal (3 + 1) x 0.5 to determine minimum odds).

Using average odds is fine if you dutch to the odds.

However, experimenting with the formula I think I've discovered what would work for group bets (i.e. dutching to the odds with multiple horse bets).

Interestingly, you're example equates if EV was 2.0 implying minimum average odds of 3/1 to break even (therefore, greater than average odds of 3/1 to profit), in a 2 horse betting scenario (EV = 2.0).

Here's a 3 horse scenario, so we set EV to 3.0. Let's say our 3 horse win probability is 60%. Working the equation this way we get a minimum odds (to break even) of 4/1.

3.0 = (4 + 1) x 0.6

To keep it simple, let's say each horse is 4/1 (averaging the odds is fine if you dutch to the odds). A $2 bet per horse is $6 per race and we get back $10 for each win. Over 10 races (win 6, lose 4) we cash for a total of $60 ($10 x 6 wins), and our total bet is also $60 ($6 x 10 races).

Therefore, the formula tells us we need better than average odds of 4/1 to make a profit on our multiple horse wager using 3 horses, and using their combined win percentage, if we set EV to the number of horses we bet in a race.

That seems to work.
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