[Mitch44]

I agree Rich that you need to be rewarded for the risk involved. Those 13 winners had to have something going for them that the others didn't. Perhaps improvement from a change. Claiming trainers make moves like this and win lots of races doing it. Perhaps most of those 13 wins fell in that category.


Any stat needs to be put in the context of the whole or in other words the field itself.


Whether 90 day horses or these types the best way to do that is to do an analysis of each horse. Stats can be very tricky. A horse in a NW2L that is 0 for 15 isn't a good candidate to win however if all the horses have similar records it has a shot to break the barrier. Of course in a field like that recent form takes on even more importance and horses that are 0 for 5 have a slight edge but they maybe a future 0 for 15 horse too.


Horses that haven't disgraced themselves at the distance and surface are the better bets. A horse maybe 0 for 30 but that 15 or 30 may not have come from todays conditions.


Look at the whole not just a single element. Analyze the race and all the horses if your betting serious money. Really place emphasis on your contenders. No program is a black box and can only perform to what it's program to do. Its probably impossible to program the complete human brain into a CP that will answer the many situations that occur. Some situations come up very frequently such as layoffs, step ups etc.


Mitch44