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Old 07-30-2021, 01:44 PM   #5
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast
#6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here
#8 L 3 V -21 very fast

This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments.

With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently.
Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered.

With the wide variants among so many horses in this race its extremely doubtful you'll find another line for all of them, therefore treat them all alike.

The real problem with this race is the UNKNOWN Factors within it. Such as 3 dirt horses and only one are for MTO the #4. The # 9 & 10 are going to try turf and are an unknown quantity. There are a couple 3 yr. old who are on the improve and may keep on improving. A first time Gelding and some new trainers who have only had the horse for less than 3 starts. Definitely not a prime betting situation and ripe for an unset.

Scratches may help a little but not enough to elevate the race to a prime betting situation.

The 6,9 or 10 could all pay a price however there would have to be some risk reward there. The 10 with a 6-1 ML isn't worth the risk but perhaps the odds should go up and it should after last two performances and long layoff.

Tread lightly with just a fun bet.

Mitch44
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