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Old 06-10-2009, 12:56 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet View Post
I'd just like to make sure I understand what this factor is - the average of Velocity and Deceleration which is represented in Spec 160 by the Incremental Match-Up Graph - 3+ Total Pace. I would appreciate anyone letting me know if I'm wrong about this.
Sorry, that's not V/DC (i.e. the F3+Total Pace column on the Speculator IMUG screen).

It was V/DC, in the Validator series (i.e. a duplicate readout to the V/DC ranking on the #7 Validator screen). In Speculator, Guy changed it. V/DC does not appear in Speculator (serious omission, IMO). In Spec, what the IMUG F3+Total pace column shows is the average of F3+True Speed. This is still a very useful figure and should definitely be modeled. But, it's not V/DC as described in the Follow Ups 70+.

V/DC (Velocity relative to Deceleration) is a fraction by fraction summing of deceleration relative to how fast the horse was going in that fraction, then ranked and merged with the Bottom Line ranking, such that you could have ties if the BL rank was lower but the V/DC rank was higher. Guy (and lots of others) were troubled that you could have ties in a factor ranking, but Doc wanted people to look at horses who did well at overcoming the pace of the race, even if they ranked lower on BL/BL which they would often do if they happened to have a lower Total Energy. If odds permit, such horses should be strongly considered for some kind of a wager.

I have seen stats from a several data keepers (Froggy comes to mind) who report that Top 2 and tie V/DC ranked horses win about 65% of the time, and Top 3 and ties 80%+. Of course, it varies by track, distance surface, etc. In my opinion, everybody should consult the V/DC rank in their analysis.

Val4 and RDSS show V/DC.

Hope that helps.

Ted
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