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Old 11-18-2016, 10:11 AM   #8
Tim Y
turf historian
 
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
I look at EACH race as an entity for exotics: who is out front, who presses, who tries to come late. At the end, contenders should be there: HOWEVER, their order is RANDOM. NO one can predict, race to race, what the relative order of contenders will be from the 1/16th pole to the wire. NO ONE. The essence of the GAMBLE (and recall that is what we are doing) is to cover and hope that the order of finish will favor the combinations the crowd does not cover. I have long ago learned from some very creative players, that the pot of gold is often made up of easily found contenders, just is an order that the crowd does not go deep enough to cover.

ANYONE focusing on JUST winners all day long, as these silly contests project, WILL lose in the long run GUARANTEED. Also grinders, who make steady profits on LOGICAL overlays, will lose out to the lucky "stabbers" among the players. Also, WHERE, in the real world, does one ONLY COUNT PROFITS and disregards lost bets? Not in any REAL world situation I have ever been around.

Any contest, to define ability at the race track, depends upon how one tackles the ENTIRE game (capping and wager creation) based upon many of the HARD EARNED, statistical evaluations each player has defined over tediously obtained stats gleaned from various tracks: NOT trying to be forced to follow How and Where to bet in a contest. One loses the freedom of playing the game to one's strengths. A contest, as randomly as they are set up, may be based upon tracks one hardly knows. NO ONE bets on tracks that are mysteries to them, or if they DO, their bankroll is going to have a quick death.

Getting the contenders is another entire world from just focusing on THE WINNER. Working the photo finish camera now for almost 7 seasons at both the t-breds and standardbreds, one gets a better appreciation of how close races often are, how many CONTENDERS are right there at the end, and the RANDOMNESS of picking that order of finish pre-race.

With good record keeping one sees patterns at each track: the splitzacta (speed runs first and third), the bottomzacta (a common way that turfers run with the logicals running 2nd and 3rd), and many other WAGERING result patterns specific to one race track or another.

The proficient player FINDS the races (in a multiple tracks per day review) that fit the PROVEN patterns that course has shown produces rather than be forced to play courses that have no known patterns. I often filter all the maiden races that day just to discover the 2nd call maidens that are impoving, then see if they have a shot to hold on to that newly found speed.
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