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Richard I agree with your analysis 100%. The take is deceptive and it really depends on where one's expertise is located and that is determined by record keeping.
I'm more than willing to give up a little where my strike rate is much higher. I don't care if a track has a win takeout of 15% and all they card are MSW, 2 yr.olds, many 3 yr olds and a disproportionate amount of turf races. These are all high risk races and while I take pride in my ability to play any kind of race I do know from records that my strike rate will be lower. I would much rather play a track with a 17% take but where they card races where my strike rate is much higher in the type races they card there.
Ditto for a track that cards my type of races for DD etc. or P3 that aren't ruined by the MSW etc. type of races within the DD ,P3 etc. or type of races which tend to bring about ruin.
I would strongly suggest that everyone maintain records and find out just what kind of races you excel at and select a track that day or a track that within one's wheelhouse. Capitalize on your strengths or play to your strengths.
Essentially the take could be 5% but if you can't win the race its meaningless.
Mitch44
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