Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulator
Which paceline would YOU select for this horse? Would you take the last race because it was a win, or would you go with the 8.5F race because it is the same distance. Or...would you take the fourth race back because it is his best and, well "only" four races back.
Do you stick with the last "three comparable" pretty closely or is it simply a judgment call.
After all his last race win has a 16.4 differential over his fourth race back, and I'm guessing it would make a significant difference whether or not you selected line one or line four. There is also a five point difference in speed rating.
Thanks.
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Hi Steve:
I certainly am no expert on the proper/effective utilization of Speculator 160 but I am developing preferences. I had a hell of a great day on Saturday at Belmont (5/12/07) using Spec160 for the first time but I am not necessarily confident at this early date that I could repeat the success. I am although most definitely happy with the software which has allowed me to look at the numbers in a different and/or more detailed manner.
As to your particular question, I would definitely select the Perceptor 1 ranked pace line between 1-3 so long as it was in a good form race. In this case I would certainly select pace line number 4 (ranked #1) in RichieP’s example. In addition, separately, I would definitely consider pace lines 1, 3 and 8 and most likely settle as per given on pace line #3 for additional Spec 160 computations. More often then not I would pick line #3 because it meets my base pace line requirements as follows: good form race, similar surface and distance, and best effort at better pace call time/rating. And of course there are always gray areas and all other kinds of areas and as you should know that is racing.
Thanks for your question because it makes me think about what I think I am doing,
RR