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Old 04-27-2015, 12:56 PM   #15
PeteC
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
Thnaks Pook

Pook, thanks so much for putting this together. You've committed to doing a lot of leg work on this for all of our benefit and that is much appreciated.

As far as participation, I think it's an interesting question. I know for myself each week I am going through a decision process not only about the race(s) but also whether or not to enter a contest pick(s).

First, I decide if I have a feel for the race and can confidently narrow it to 1 or 2 horses. Then I try to project what the odds might be and decide if it makes sense ROI-wise to make a pick for the contest. Since I may be offline at or near post time this is mostly a projection based only on ML odds and a feel for what the final odds might be. There's also the consideration of needing to stay at the 50% level too so I may enter contest picks even though I wouldn't bet them because of odds.

I wonder if this is similar to how others are doing it. If ROI is the goal and you can be online near post time it would make sense to wait as long as possible before deciding to make a pick.

I also considered the idea of just matching and if I can narrow it to 1 or 2 horses, make my picks and let the ROI chips fall where they may. Mike seems to be doing just fine not worrying about odds. It helps when you are as sharp as he is at hitting those big prices!!

Anyway, just some thoughts. I wonder how others are approaching it...

Thanks again,

Pete
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