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Re: Decision Model - Is the model based on races where you included the entire field? Or is it based on what you felt were the "true" contenders only? I ask because you can muddy the waters by including the non-contenders as part of your mix, which will throw your model numbers askew. By narrowing down to anywhere from 3-5 "true" contenders (may vary race by race), you remove a lot of the "noise" from your readouts.
Another question - Have you considered "tiering" your contenders based on the line score of the factors you choose to rate (I see you're using Phase III methodology, aka the compounded ratings which inspired Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping), and doing a "wagercapping" type strategy of letting the odds determining your wagers in a given race? There is a ton of literature about wagercapping (Ted posted several excerpts from the old Follow-Up journals featuring a Sartin client known as "The Capper") that may enlighten you.
Best of luck in your wagering endeavors.
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