[Because I Can Jim]

I agree with Ted.

There are many different "things" when it comes to the methodology. Everyone must find their own way even if they do have some guidance. Sure everyone is going to get "stuck" and posting helps to get that guidance. But, in the long run, the answers you find for yourself are the ones that are going to resonate with you. Notice I said the answers you find yourself...posting is part of the finding yourself. So keep on posting!

(That may sound strange from someone who looks like they have only 4 or 5 posts. However, what you see is not necessarily the whole story. Back in 1985 or there abouts, I travelled to Beaumont, CA, went to seminars, sat with Brohamer, Pizzolla, Purdy and others, talked on the phone with Bradshaw, achieved the goal of 60% winners at an $8 mutuel, which was considered nirvana at that time, etc... Writing about that is a post for another day.)

Like Ted, I like staying close to a recent line.

I also like to glance at the TPR+E/L Graph and may go back because a line because of it. For Kate, Aug 4 and Jul 22 are not typical of how the horse expends its energy. But be warned, this is the way the horse expends it energy whether that race was a good race or poor race, in form or out of form, etc... which is different from its running style. Have you noticed how the running style from Jul 22 is a presser, yet, its energy distribution is early? (See Jul 22.) Be careful with this. (Again, going down a topic for another post.)

Yet, your question was - is this horse a contender?
If you are not sure, keep it and then throw it out later. Contender Selection and "Paceline Selection" has always been a hot topic from the start of the teaching of the methodolgy. Yet, it is interesting to see in one of the seminar videos from the video collection (I don't knw which one because I am remembering it) where the gentleman sets up the scenario and asks the question about which one of two pacelines to use and Marion Jones says "Use both!" I cannot even begin to think about how many times I have seen that seen played out ever since 1985. If you are not sure about a horse, keep it in. If you are not sure about a paceline, use it too. If you have 6 horses as contenders in a race, you do not need to get it down to 5 because you read about or hear about getting the race down to the "5 contenders in a race". Or if you eliminate, eliminate, eliminate adn low and behold you have 4 horses, don't go looking for another horse to put back in.

It is a "methodology" and not a system. They are guidelines which leaves grey areas that need to be interpreted which is what we get paid for. If it was black an white, black boxes would abound and handicapping would be finished (yet, I think if there was a black box that guaranteed 100% success under a specific set of rules for using it, people would find a way to screw it up.)

Finally, for this rant, (sorry, I get long winded about things I am passionate about and end up going off in different tangents because everything is so interrelated), you are posting only Kate's PP and asking if it is a contender. Let me ask you this....

Let's say we have a ficticious racetrack called Theoretical Downs (TD). There are 10 races on the card for today. In the first race on the card, we have the same race conditions as on April 13, 2013 for the 4thh race at OP. Only, here at TD we have the following horse(s) entered... in the number 1 post postition is Kate's Main Man.
That is it. there are no other horses entered in the race.
My question is "Is Kate's Main Man a contender?"

Before you think I am off my rocker...LOL - think about it. Why? (Other than it is the only horse in the race.)

Did you pick a paceline, look at APV, speed ratings, or any of the other various methods, techniques, etc... to decide if Kate's Main Man is a contender?

Now let's alter the race a little and enter a second horse in the race - Secretariat.
Which horse or horses would you think are the contenders in the race?

Really???

How did you decide that (other than "knowing" Secretariat is a Triple Crown winner)?
Would you look at Kate's Main Man and apply all of the techinques of class, speed, paceline selection, etc... when looking at Kate and determined Kate would be or not be a contender based upon your looking only at its past performances before you even looked at Secretariat's past performances?

Or did you do something else? Did you look at Secretariat too?

I feel - and granted it is only my feeling and my opinion (and we all know what opinions are like - mine included) that we read we are to select the contenders in a race. We also read that we should select a representative paceline of how we think the horse will run today (I am simplifying this satement and the factors involved, because once agian that is a topic for another post). So what does everyone do? They skip the contender selection process, begin with any horse and analyze that horse to death to include selecting a paceline and determining if that horse is a contender or not even though it is the first horse they are looking at.

This horse shows first through the stretch and is beaten 4 by 3-1/2BL in its last race. Wire to twre in the previous two. Contender.

The next horse is 4th or 5th through all of the calls is the last race beaten on average 3-1/2 to 5BL in its last race which was 32 days ago, two workouts since then and was pretty far behind at the first call in its previous two races with positions around 4-5 and 3-6BL. Out. Non-contender. Oh really?

Yes, I know I did not include times but that is not the point. I also realize that I am not including other horses, factors, variables, that could/would effect the answer to that questions such as if there was another early, neet to lead horse, that would setup teh race so that the first horse, while it will have an effect on the race, might not really be a true contender. Notice I didn't select a paceline, etc...

The point is that we focus on a horse and try to determine whether it is a contender or not without focusing on the interplay of all of the horses in the race which is not about paceline selection.

I went through this, looking at the tree instead of the forest, so I am not pointing fingers at anyone. It is just that I see so many posts, writings, etc... about paceline selection as if that was going to give us our true contenders. It is the other way around. We need to determine the true contenders in the race first. Then select the paceline. Doing it that way, you are more apt to select the correct paceline for the horses who have a viable chance to be in the money.

I am sorry. I know that this is long winded (how many hours did it take me to write for you to take only a few minutes to read??? LOL!!!). I also know it might cause contraversy, heated debates, etc... But, as I tell my students, when you take a test and you get the queestion right, you are nto learning anything. you already know it. It is when you get a question wrong that a window of opportunity is open for you to learn what you did not know.

I hope this helps in some way. Feel free to ask questions. I try to anwer them as well as I can.

Jim
Any Questions, Any Time.