Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Horse
1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field.
3, line 1
6, line 1
8, line 5
All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again.
Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check.
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Thanks very much for this tip! I reviewed the -7.5 T at GP lines and the f1 values are drastically different from other lines. So, of course you were correct. It just surprises me how much difference there is, as I have not being handicapping GP much.
Would you say that it would be a good idea to review all f1 values routinely in selecting lines? I would assume that this situation could exist at other tracks and/or distances.