This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.
Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.
For me, this horse would not receive a line, as the last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's.
, However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.
Can you help me?