Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs
This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.
Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.
Attachment 46925
Attachment 46926
The last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's. However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.
Can you help me? |
Post editted by Ted ...
It is true I wouldn't use the last line as it is a route race.
However, as far as line 2 is concerned, one of the guidelines is to forgive a horses first race over a track at the current meet. This meets that requirement.
Therefore, line 3, 76 days ago at today's track, distance and class becomes the line to use.
Post editted by Ted ...