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Old 05-15-2019, 07:06 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Richard:
Race tracks are not casino's and they don't determine odds a horse goes off at. They only act as a caretaker of the money,for a commission.Casinos have fixed probabilities whereas horseracing does not.

Years ago you're theory had more merit however in todays racing that has diminished greatly, the game has changed dramatically with so much late money that EV is unpredictable. Also the public is not predicable.

I find the same problem with tote board watchers. One has absolutely no idea where that money is coming from and whether its smart money or uninformed tipster money. To me those that rely on such things have a hole in their game and lack confidence, seeking a confirmation for their decision.

Try playing a P3 or P4 etc. with only expected high EV horses and see how many are cashed. Legitimate low EV horses must be included in any sequence of bets. Additionally its impossible to know the EV when playing multiple race bets.

The game all comes down to picking winners prior to the bell or EX Ante, theory or Ex Post pays nothing.Winners are the gold standard and springboard for every bet. The player should design the bet to take advantage of their EX Ante assessment.

Mitch44
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