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Jeebs;
It makes sense to me and your correct.
I use to take 9-5 and can make a profit on that. The lower the odds one accepts the higher win percentage you must obtain to show a profit. Now I try to look at alternatives to taking that, such as an EX etc. and even with that I try to avoid low paying EX., especially combinations of the lowest 2 odds horses. I don't even have to look at the Ex matrix to see what they'll pay as I know their unacceptable. The public frequently makes the mistake of hammering some EX payoff down to $7.Thats insane to take. This also reduces the extension of my bet (capital put in) so when I do hit I win more and when that low paying EX of the two low odds horses does beat me I risked less, again helping my overall profit. Generally the public is good picking a winner but lousy on EX or DD. They fail to take advantage of the DD and reducing the take out but will bet to win in two connecting races. Love those rolling DD races.
I still use the 60-40 on the low odds horse and 40% on the longer odds horse. I also reverse the 60-40 so if the low odds horse wins I break even or about even and if the longer odds of my two wins I have 60% on it. This really comes down to how much you trust your opinion and assessment and what the public is giving you. I don't have a problem breaking even on a race.There are many ways to design bets.
The bottom line is I try to design a bet based on my assessment of the race and to also take advantage of the public's mistakes based on my assessment. Always looking for a profit and getting value for my money based on overlays created by the public's mistakes. Design the bet to fit your analysis and seize the moment to exploit and capture their mistakes.
Its also helpful to be able to tune out the noise and stick to your analysis. I pay little attention to the M/L and other so called expert picks. Odds never scare me and once a decision is made I don't care if its 100-1 I'm still betting it. To reap the rewards one must make the bet, far too many get scared off good paying horses.
It takes great discipline but the best option for most and what I would recommend is to pass a race where the odds are too low on your choices. As Tim(Lt1) says "no one ever loss money passing a race." There also is another one coming along in 20 minutes or so.
Mitch44
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