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Old 11-04-2016, 04:38 PM   #5
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
I don't think so...

What you suggest is that the energy requirements of some set of races will dictate what the energy requirements will be needed in today's race with this group of horses. That is just like using Pars and that doesn't work for sure.

You have to determine what kind of pace the leader or leaders will set. Sure if today's race sets up like one of your sample races, you could win the race. However, if it is that easy to find the winner, I imagine they are bet down severely. What you really want is a race that sets up differently and that the winner will run counter-energy. You have to wait for them and chances are if their ratings are outside your acceptable range you probably threw him out anyway! Just handicap the race and see what the numbers tell you. Will there be contention for the lead or might you have a hidden early that will take them gate to wire and pay boxcars.

Anyway, I sincerely hope that this stuff works for you and you can narrow the range of acceptable % Med or whatever you use, otherwise there is little elimination value. I derive my satisfaction and reward from being able to get the numbers to support how I visualize the race running. If you evaluate each horse hopefully you can get a feeling of his quality, courage, emerging form and speed and pace capabilities. Can you find a line that represents that effort?
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