Thanks for the question Mike!
Based upon Ball Four's last race I would have wagered on it but much more conservatively because I do not like horses that are confirmed quitters,and it lost by 14 lengths in its last race. However, and in defense of Ball Four, it could not get the lead in the last race and chased a swift pace. The complexion of this race is completely different so I looked for reasons to bet this horse and its previous two races confirmed that I was onto something.
Taking your inquiry a little further, I have found that horses with a higher energy distribution can outperform horses with higher Total (and Hidden) Energy. Horse that consequently rates higher than my early horse on many of the RDSS screens. Sometimes the higher Total Energy horses fire and sometimes they do not. Horses with a match-up advantage based upon energy distribution will almost always give you an honest race provided the jockey does not fight with that horse, exert too much energy too soon (because they do not have to), and let's the horse run its race!
Look at a thread I started in the Energy forum based upon the Derby:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5613. Below are two screen shots from the Derby (I did this race initially in Synthesis but redid it in RDSS after subscribing). Mine that Bird was the only early horse, it had the highest EPR, it had low Total Energy, and had the absolute worse Hidden Energy. What did that horse do, it showed an acceleration like it never showed before and blew the field away!
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Horses with a higher energy distribution will compromise middle of the road runners because it will force them to distribute energy earler than they would like, or if they sit back they will not have the burst of energy to match the Early Energy horse. Early Energy horses real danger comes from horse with very late energy (in route races and just late horses in sprints), because they too can show a burst of energy. And like the Early Energy horse, that burst of energy can come at any point in a race (a very late energy horse can wire a field, stalk the pace and mow the speed down in the stretch, or make one run late)!