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Old 03-28-2021, 01:58 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
57viking:


I would have used line #1 for several reasons: its the best Preceptor, the horse is a 3 yr. old, they can improve dramatically and sudden, their more recent races are more predicable as to form, it also is closer todays distance of 9 F and in line one it closed from a fast early pace.

As Bradshaw said; "You have to use what's there." This isn't an uncommon problem. What players do is pick a line and than forget about it. Once all lines are picked they need to be reviewed for distances and surfaces. Personally I downgrade any horse whose line does not match today's surface. Workouts can also provide a clue along with trainers stats as to their taking to another surface.

Distances changes require more analysis using % Med, can a horse rate etc. Anytime you use a lesser distance line its going to get favored in the readouts, such as using an 8 F line for a 1/14 race. The shorter the race the faster they are run and their not likely to carry that speed at longer distances. The readouts favor the fastest horses that can finish.The exceptions are high quality Grades horses and so forth.

Once you have selected lines for all horses, they must be reviewed and a determination made as to their validity. Are they accurate or need to be downgraded? No one rule applies to all situations encountered. The closest you'll come to a rule isn't really a rule but is Sartin's guidelines of selecting the best race of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface, use the Preceptor to help get the correct line.

Think of it as I do, comparable also means to me comparable to the lines picked for the other horses that you make contenders.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-28-2021 at 02:04 PM.
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