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Hindsight is 20/20: in this case, the most predictive line was the dirt line as this was about how the horse ran in the Fla Derby. You have to ask yourself (before the race): why is this horse in the race? It had been improving on the turf, and showed nothing in its only dirt race. It is stepping up to a Grade 1 race with only a maiden win (on the turf). The trainer is experimenting, or the owners are hoping for a KY Derby contender. Even though the last race on turf is closest to today's distance, the surface change probably overrides using it given how the horse has performed up to today's race.
Richard
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