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Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

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Old 04-15-2012, 02:31 PM   #1
Grade 1
clore1030's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,672
Been a while...

I haven't posted a selection in ages. Of late, other things have kept me from getting to look at races until nearly the last minute.

My goal and method are always the same - one horse, fairly mechanical line selection and shopping for value. This way I can still profit even if I just hit 25% winners.

Today's eighth race at AQU looks interesting, but the data in my decision model for the distance of one-mile has my willingness to play such races at a minimum. The top-ranked factors show nothing higher than 33%.

One horse today though not only scores in two of the four top-rated factors, it's also going at a price. Thus, if two factors are hitting at 33% and the horse has a morning line of 6/1, this is an overlay. A considerable gap over the next BL horse is always encouraging.

The horse is EA and the program number is 1. The veteran is doing well, winning three of eight since Dutrow claimed him for 50K about 18 months ago. Earnings of 80K since means he's paying his feed bill and he performs well at this level and distance over the big NYC ovals.
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