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07-26-2018, 08:33 AM | #1 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Calif
Posts: 27
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28 July 2018 SAR (Saturday)
Ok, pulled in a data file for this track and date, as it was the furthest ahead I could find for Saratoga. 11 races, 4 of them are Stakes. I'm going to try to focus on a MSW, a Claim, an ALW, and a Stakes. Here's the card:
1) 5.5f TURF MSW85k 2yo - 14 entries 2) 1-1/16m InnerTURF Clm25000 3up - 11 entries 3) 1-1/8m MC40000 3&up - 9 entries 4) 6f [S](F)Alw77000b 3&up - 10 entries 5) 6f MSW85k 2yo - 1 entries 6) 1m InnerTURF Alw87000b 3&up 14 entries 7) 6.5f Stakes 3yo - 7 entries Amstrdam-G3 / Amsterdam S-G3 / purse 200k 8) 8f Stakes 3&up - 7 entries AGVndbH-G1 / Alfred C. Vanderbilt - G1 / purse 350k 9) 1-3/8m InnerTURF Stakes 4&up - 9 entries BwlnGrn-G2 / Bowling Green S-G2 / purse 250k 10) 1-1/8m Stakes 3yo - 5 entries JimDandy-G2 / purse 600k 11) 1-1/8m TURF (F)OC80000b 3yo - 14 entries Ooops, have to get ready for work. Will continue later. Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-26-2018 at 09:35 AM. Reason: correct the date |
07-26-2018, 11:51 AM | #2 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Calif
Posts: 27
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Race 5 has 11 (eleven) entries. My bad
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07-26-2018, 01:28 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Jim Dandy
The feature Jim Dandy is only a five horse field , There might be a price , Lets see the tote board.
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07-26-2018, 03:34 PM | #4 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Calif
Posts: 27
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Hey, when you guys start to analyze a race card, what do you prefer? Straight through from first to last? Skip around based on easiest / hardest, largest / smallest, some other criteria?
Last edited by Lythande; 07-26-2018 at 03:36 PM. Reason: Fixed some grammar. Cell phone faux pas |
07-26-2018, 03:47 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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one race at a time
Hello
I take them as they come up Here is an example - So far today Race 3 Saratoga - No Bet Race 5 Newbury England - lost Race 4 Delaware - No Bet Race 5 Delaware - Won ( DH) Race 7 Laurel No Bet Race 6 Saratoga No Bet I look at races that are coming up next on the tote feeds Usually, it's bouncing between Saratoga, Del Mar, Laurel Parx Delaware Last edited by Bill V.; 07-26-2018 at 03:50 PM. |
07-26-2018, 05:43 PM | #6 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Calif
Posts: 27
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Wow Bill. How much time do you take to analyze a race and identify your contender(s)?
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07-26-2018, 06:13 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Not much
Hello
Well Not much time at all, However that comes from many years of practice. My work is mostly with Phase 1 now. For most of my 20 years experience I used the best of the last three speed ratings, I picked a line for every horse in every race, I eliminated down to no more than 5 contenders, then bet my two choices of the top 3 BLBL, then VDC. I never really looked that close to the other screens except for maybe the Early/Late (TPR) screen and the segments screen. It used to take me about 15 to 20 minutes per race. Once I caught on and migrated back to the basics and with the guidance of FTL's guidelines. Contender and line selection time was reduced. I quickly eliminate almost all the horses from win contention. You will probably never see me post a longshot anymore or a big exacta or other horizontal bets because I usually eliminate most longer odds horses. I am much more interested in the pools and current form these days, I play for a very high win percentage and bet much more per race to get my rebates I would say basically I can do a race and have total confidence to make a bigger bet after about 7 minutes. I consider my self very well versed with phase 1. I can see form cycles and the match up just with the EP -LP relationships It really helps using + 0 and (0) lines -- Colored coded in RDSS Experience of 20 years, and lots more common sense and understanding handicapping way more than my early years has cut down the workload. But I have never stopped practicing Good Skill to you |
07-27-2018, 09:19 AM | #8 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Calif
Posts: 27
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Hey, Bill, do you have a copy of Recreational Handicapping by James Quinn? It has an interesting chapter on betting.
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07-27-2018, 01:26 PM | #9 | |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Quote:
I am selective as to which races I will play. If the race matches my criteria, I will bet it. It doesn't matter to me what type of race it is. |
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07-27-2018, 04:50 PM | #10 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Betting Mantra
Quote:
I probably read or had the book at one time, During one of my first meetings with Doc. I was thinking I would impress him and rattle off all the handicapping books I owned. His reply to my list? 3 words = Throw Them Away. Handicapping books are a good tool but Doc said they generally were too mainstream, He published this in follow up #83 Its been my basic approach ever since My day yesterday Profit was small but I am just biding my time Last edited by Bill V.; 07-27-2018 at 04:56 PM. |
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