Woodbine - Wed. Night - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 07-14-2010, 07:28 AM

Here is tonight's 6th race going 8.5f on the poly

looks like 1 hard wired early at this distance structure ( #7 ) with couple of others showing multiple styles

#6 and #9 coming back 3rd start off layoff

Full field

RichieP · 07-14-2010, 07:29 AM

..,

RichieP · 07-14-2010, 07:31 AM

.,.

RichieP · 07-14-2010, 07:32 AM

/./

mikesal57 · 07-14-2010, 11:01 AM

Hi Guys....

This is my take on this race...

non-winners of 2 lifetime....which means they only won a maiden race

so on class..there isnt much...

looking at last 3 days of results...being near lead is winning..

#1 presser..but doesnt like to win
#1a closer 2nd off year layoff..yuck
#2 8 lifetime races ..2 from "07" 3 from "08" 0 from "09" 3 from"10" would you put money on this horse??
#3 another closer with spread out races
#4 p/s worse than the #1
#5 p/s not much here too
#6 e/p ahh..3rd off layoff..first back tough race lost by nose..last race on turf made up 7 lts into fast pace .even finish
#7 won maiden last race on lead...but not fond of horses moving up off that
#8 won maiden off closing effort...same as 7
#9 good speed off layoff , last turf just a workout..prior to layoff good speed but vs cheaper
#10 won as closer , sprint, maiden...you know the rest..
left with 6-7-9
I like the 6

gl

mike

tfm · 07-14-2010, 02:30 PM

while the 1 "doesn't like to win', I think he's run a few competitive races, races in which he got poor rides/trips. The 7 and 8 both broke their maidens last out -- the 7 wire to wire and the 8 with a ridiculous wide premature move. Ramsammy rode both of them and stays with the 7. The track up there has produced significantly more front running wins than it did to this point last year, and I thus don't know how good the 7 is. I do know that the 8 won a race getting a trip which usually results in a horse getting run down.

Don't know if the 8 can beat the 1 but the 8 will be longer odds.

Bill Lyster · 07-14-2010, 05:20 PM

Only dedicated front runner is maiden winner in last, #7, in very slow time. Not enthusiastic about that at all.

With all due respect Mike, i want to look closer at #2. Only 1 dirt route in slop, but was on lead and faded badly. Line 1 on turf was an attempt at a wire job but just missed. And I do not have a good turf to poly understanding at WO, but projecting to 8.5f in last would be 142.8 losing by about half L. Line two projected at 6.4/half furlong and adding two ticks to the internals shows losing by 1 in a final time of 143.7 pressing from 5th to 2nd while closing. So this one does not need lead but may get a BIG lead by default. The 2 beat the 1-9-4 in tandem handily.

The 3 is probably the FPLR running 7F in 1.22.9 losing by a neck. Projected pace and times are 46-110.6-123.1 and 142.3, closing 6-2-2 positionally and 6.5-2-nk otherwise. Has closed well in lines 2 and 4 and beat 4 and 9 in separate tandems, losing to he 6 in tandem 8 by 1/2 length. If I matched the 3 vs two off of sprints, I'd take the 3.

The 6 in last closed 11-3.7-4.1 against the fastest route pace in this field 46.7-111.6-143.6 losing by 5.8 L - could/should be closer today. Runs closer against slower paces than today and got run down by #3.

I take 3 to win, with 2 and 6 in exacta positions and maybe a smidge on the 2 as a 2nd win candidate.

Good luck to the gamblers,

Bill

I think

Bill Lyster · 07-14-2010, 05:22 PM

Scratch the 10

Eddybugsy · 07-14-2010, 07:53 PM

WO
R6
I like the 6 to win
Bet 2-6,3
Ex Bx 6,3
Ex 6,3/1 (the 1 likes 2nd)

For Some Reason the #6 keeps making it to the top of my list
R2 #6 was 2nd (he was a little to far back to catch the 1)
R4 The 6 (6,8)
R7 The 6 with a win/place bet
Ex 6/2,3

Capcondo · 07-14-2010, 08:20 PM

I think this race will run sustained.

Using the pace of the 7:

24.0 48.3 1:13.9 1:47.2

I am left with the 1, 4 and 6.

1: The 1 is a presser and I think it will run sustained OUT
4: I like the 2nd and 3rd back but it's not enough of a move for me.
6: The 6 is my choice. Last the pace was fast; 2nd back good effort against a slow pace. I think he'll get a pace more like his maiden win. The only thing I don't like about that is it was a maiden win.

The 6 is my choice.

Tim

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07-14-2010, 07:28 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Woodbine - Wed. Night Here is tonight's 6th race going 8.5f on the poly looks like 1 hard wired early at this distance structure ( #7 ) with couple of others showing multiple styles #6 and #9 coming back 3rd start off layoff Full field Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-14-2010, 07:29 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	.., Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-14-2010, 07:31 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	.,. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-14-2010, 07:32 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	/./ Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-14-2010, 11:01 AM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Hi Guys.... This is my take on this race... non-winners of 2 lifetime....which means they only won a maiden race so on class..there isnt much... looking at last 3 days of results...being near lead is winning.. #1 presser..but doesnt like to win #1a closer 2nd off year layoff..yuck #2 8 lifetime races ..2 from "07" 3 from "08" 0 from "09" 3 from"10" would you put money on this horse?? #3 another closer with spread out races #4 p/s worse than the #1 #5 p/s not much here too #6 e/p ahh..3rd off layoff..first back tough race lost by nose..last race on turf made up 7 lts into fast pace .even finish #7 won maiden last race on lead...but not fond of horses moving up off that #8 won maiden off closing effort...same as 7 #9 good speed off layoff , last turf just a workout..prior to layoff good speed but vs cheaper #10 won as closer , sprint, maiden...you know the rest.. left with 6-7-9 I like the 6 gl mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

07-14-2010, 02:30 PM	#6
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	while the 1 "doesn't like to win', I think he's run a few competitive races, races in which he got poor rides/trips. The 7 and 8 both broke their maidens last out -- the 7 wire to wire and the 8 with a ridiculous wide premature move. Ramsammy rode both of them and stays with the 7. The track up there has produced significantly more front running wins than it did to this point last year, and I thus don't know how good the 7 is. I do know that the 8 won a race getting a trip which usually results in a horse getting run down. Don't know if the 8 can beat the 1 but the 8 will be longer odds. Last edited by tfm; 07-14-2010 at 02:41 PM.

07-14-2010, 05:20 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Only dedicated front runner is maiden winner in last, #7, in very slow time. Not enthusiastic about that at all. With all due respect Mike, i want to look closer at #2. Only 1 dirt route in slop, but was on lead and faded badly. Line 1 on turf was an attempt at a wire job but just missed. And I do not have a good turf to poly understanding at WO, but projecting to 8.5f in last would be 142.8 losing by about half L. Line two projected at 6.4/half furlong and adding two ticks to the internals shows losing by 1 in a final time of 143.7 pressing from 5th to 2nd while closing. So this one does not need lead but may get a BIG lead by default. The 2 beat the 1-9-4 in tandem handily. The 3 is probably the FPLR running 7F in 1.22.9 losing by a neck. Projected pace and times are 46-110.6-123.1 and 142.3, closing 6-2-2 positionally and 6.5-2-nk otherwise. Has closed well in lines 2 and 4 and beat 4 and 9 in separate tandems, losing to he 6 in tandem 8 by 1/2 length. If I matched the 3 vs two off of sprints, I'd take the 3. The 6 in last closed 11-3.7-4.1 against the fastest route pace in this field 46.7-111.6-143.6 losing by 5.8 L - could/should be closer today. Runs closer against slower paces than today and got run down by #3. I take 3 to win, with 2 and 6 in exacta positions and maybe a smidge on the 2 as a 2nd win candidate. Good luck to the gamblers, Bill I think

07-14-2010, 05:22 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Scratch the 10

07-14-2010, 07:53 PM	#9
Eddybugsy AlwNW3X Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 32	WO R6 I like the 6 to win Bet 2-6,3 Ex Bx 6,3 Ex 6,3/1 (the 1 likes 2nd) For Some Reason the #6 keeps making it to the top of my list R2 #6 was 2nd (he was a little to far back to catch the 1) R4 The 6 (6,8) R7 The 6 with a win/place bet Ex 6/2,3

07-14-2010, 08:20 PM	#10
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Woodbine 6th I think this race will run sustained. Using the pace of the 7: 24.0 48.3 1:13.9 1:47.2 I am left with the 1, 4 and 6. 1: The 1 is a presser and I think it will run sustained OUT 4: I like the 2nd and 3rd back but it's not enough of a move for me. 6: The 6 is my choice. Last the pace was fast; 2nd back good effort against a slow pace. I think he'll get a pace more like his maiden win. The only thing I don't like about that is it was a maiden win. The 6 is my choice. Tim __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.