AQU2/26 race 5 -for Richie P

[Bill V.]

For Richie P's birthday

What better then a New York track Match Up

Lots of early speed on horse off over 100 days
lightly raced so ...

Here are my lines and running styles checked

[Bill V.]

rest...







I will look for an EP and a fast S

so I will go with 2 and 4

Good Match Skill

Bill

[Jeebs]

I didn't print PPs, so I'm simply going off of your read outs, Bill.

1-P
2-P
3-P
4-P
5-S/P
6-P
7-E 22.2-46.0
8-E/P

Yes, we have layoff issues in this race with the lone E off 146 days, but after re-reading Hat Check and RichieP's recall of his education with The Hat, we cover all of the PPs and don't let the layoff factor cloud our thinking. I used his last race at Belmont for PoR analysis, so the field will be matched up against this pace.

Analyzing the 7, he is a true NTL, needing to break on top and get a clear (1 length) lead. There are no other true E runners here, but Nonna Jo's 2nd line down shows a 1st at break, settling in 3rd behind 21.3. Positionally based on this fraction, he will be on the chase, not giving the 7 a breather. He figures to get sucked in here in this matchup.

I like Bill V's line selection of the 4 here, as he figures to sit 3rd or 4th. While the line was against a slower pace, he held position and gained ground from 2c to SC. Imagine him making that move versus the pace on line 5, and he is a fast OTE in this matchup, with perfect position away from the early grouping. I feel that the others are mismatched in here for various reasons (position, too slow, etc.) so my choice is the 4 horse in today's matchup.

Good luck!

[Jeebs]

Cest la vie.

[Bill V.]

hi jeebs

Thanks for helping out on the race

a couple of things , I agree that the lone e 7 must be looked at
as the pace setter

I went back to my somewhat not up to date Parx database
I know 186 races is not a big sample.

I wanted to see 2 things
1. how many 3+ F-M non maidens won with over 90 days since their last race
and
2. what was the running style of those winners

I know Parx is not aqu inner but at least from what I have
it looks like this

In 186 races for 3+F-M non maiden
Total wins = 8

Here are the winners It looks like Eand EP long layoff females have a better
chance the P and S running styles

one side note Winning Image won but it was only a 3 horse field and 1 of the other horses was also off 119 days

[Bill V.]

winners back after over 90

[Bill V.]

The 1 wins and pays $17

I will add the chart as soon as its up