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Old 05-13-2019, 04:19 AM   #11
ignacio todoberto bernal
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Hi Polambi !tandem races Polambi ! tandem races...............

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Old 05-15-2019, 09:30 AM   #12
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Great strike polambi, wishing more going forward.


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Old 05-15-2019, 10:47 AM   #13
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It is a fact that the average price of winners has decreased. Just not for BSR but also from pace(Sartin), too many race tracks, and not enough horses to go around that create small fields.

Value is a determination made by the player and like beauty is in the eye of the player. Value can be a horse paying $4.00, where else can you get 100% interest in less than 2 minutes? To say;"Just because a longshot bet wins does not mean it is "value" in a statistical sense." is crazy.

Value is an ideal approach to making money which is extremely insufficient in the market of horseracing as I see it. Due to todays late money that comes into the pools from other outlets,late bettors and whales. Hell we don't really know what odds we are getting until the horses have long left the gate and its too late to bet.

EV as I see it is not a major handicapping factor to beating this game. To beat this game one has to pick winners regardless of price. And if its the best horse you better not leave it out of your bet sequence for EX. DD,P3,P4, etc. In this game you win with winners, they are the key to making money regardless of what they pay or their value.

The player must solve the puzzle for every race they play whether the winner is a short price or a longshot. Neither favorites or longshots are all created equal. And that is done with proven handicapping factors, angles such as pace, SR, consistency etc.

EV is not a major handicapping factor however math can play and does play a role . The math within the RDSS program is amazing. Math is like oil to an engine in that it'll never get you from point A to point B. The main thing is the motor and the motor for horse racing or winners(equine and humans) is proven factors that produce winners. Not what they pay but factors that produce winners.

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Old 05-15-2019, 11:14 AM   #14
Bill V.
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Excellent

Thank you, Mitch,
You say it much more eloquently than I can ever say it.

I am sure you left a good impression on Doc in your time together.
I am happy you have such a devotion to his words and practices
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:18 PM   #15
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Mitch, Thanks for your contribution to this post. We are on the same page "To beat this game one has to pick winners regardless of price". That is very true.
People who wait for a horse to be 2-1 or 3-1 before they can bet on it will never cash big tickets. And the funny thing is most long shots are not actually long shots. They are logical, legitimate contenders. But their abilities are overshadowed by their odds. Look at this race carefully. Only two horses in the field won their last race recently: #1 and #11. And because they won recently, they are still in good form. Why are they long shots in this race? Is it because of "statistics"? or because the racing secretary has so decided?
Well, I don't wait for the odds to make a horse look attractive to me. I'll catch these so-called long shots whenever they show up at my door.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:31 PM   #16
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Hey your line selection perfected

This is certainly very entertaining
And the lines selected certainly provided value!
Well bet!
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:42 PM   #17
Mitch44
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Your right polambi in that most longshots are contenders and logical horses. The person making the morning line steers where most the money goes. Sometimes I wonder if its by design.

The masses tend to pile on the low price horses prior to the gates opening. Whenever they do this the odds must go up on the other contenders and other horses.

While the top 3 low odds horses do win many races its not a guarantee. The public plays follow the money rather than making informed decisions on logical horses.

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