FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16 - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

rmath · 07-30-2016, 08:04 PM

I worked this race and have the 8-9-10 as my final three contenders and would play these three in an exacta box.
If the 9 horse goes off any where near its morning line I would bet it across the board.
Rmath

Capcondo · 07-30-2016, 08:23 PM

I think the FPLR horse is the 9.
I decided to use the 4/29 race at this track and this distance for the pace 22.4 46.3 59.5 1:06.3. The FPLR horse comes out of this tandem.

I don't see much speed in this race and I think it will run close to the pace. Here's how I break it down.

1: OTE at this pace
2: OUT
3: Late. OUT
4: OTE at this pace
5: OUT
6: OUT
7: Early. Not a fighter. Contender.
8: Slow. OUT.
9: Early Fighter. Definitely a contender.
10: To paraphrase Mark in other places, not a horse anymore.

I would single the 9 at a morning line price of 45:1. I'd also bet to place on the 9 at that price. If I were a two horse bettor which I'm not, I'd play the 4 as an OTE horse.

Good luck.

MikeB · 07-30-2016, 08:35 PM

I agree on the 9. There are 5 horses here that are nominally 'E's, but the 4 and 7 look to be down in their form cycles, and the 10 hasn't raced in 280 days and isn't the horse it used to be.

None of the OTEs look to be able to seriously press the pace. That leaves the 9 and the 1. With good odds, I bet them both, otherwise pass the race.

sureshotlink · 07-30-2016, 08:47 PM

9 horse has 2 running styles E and presser.

Doesn't need the lead to win.

9-7-10

Bill Lyster · 07-30-2016, 09:07 PM

Won by the 8 then the 3 and 2 at $12.20

shoeless · 07-30-2016, 09:20 PM

Dave nice call on the 8 to win right on top

Mark · 07-30-2016, 09:36 PM

The #10 killed all the other speed as they went 22 1st fraction.
The winner who I made an EP and therefore threw out when I variegated OTE and due to the layoff: Name: 7.30.Evd.horse8.PNG
Views: 424
Size: 66.6 KB

Name: 7.30.Evd.horse8.PNG
Views: 424
Size: 66.6 KB

For whatever reason I did not see the 6th line back, 427 days ago: A win at the track and distance while running Sustained. And he did it off a 336 day layoff.
I can't claim that I was rushed or really have any excuse other than I missed it and lost the race.

I expected a horse to run down the center of the track and win, I just didn't have the right one. The #3 did finish second and paid over $25 to place. But stubbornly refused to change my win/place bet on the #6 when he had a last minute jock switch.
Congratulations to the winners and winning exacta betters!!!

Lt1 · 07-30-2016, 09:50 PM

Nice job by Dave and Mitch who also pointed to the 3 as a saver bet. Rich Mathie also had the winner listed.
Tim

Bill Lyster · 07-31-2016, 11:26 AM

This was my final screen, though I did not post it. It looked to me that the 8 had pressed several times and did not get close to the lead until the pace was very slow. It only happened once, so I made this horse a P. I kept the 1 to reinforce my pace idea. The 8 ran closest to the lead in my view without needing it. The stretch call position and time did it for me vs. the others.

DaveEdwards · 08-01-2016, 12:26 PM

Thanks Lads,

Obviously enjoyed watching this race, even if I did have to stay up to approaching 2:00am to watch it!

07-30-2016, 08:23 PM	#12
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	I think the FPLR horse is the 9. I decided to use the 4/29 race at this track and this distance for the pace 22.4 46.3 59.5 1:06.3. The FPLR horse comes out of this tandem. I don't see much speed in this race and I think it will run close to the pace. Here's how I break it down. 1: OTE at this pace 2: OUT 3: Late. OUT 4: OTE at this pace 5: OUT 6: OUT 7: Early. Not a fighter. Contender. 8: Slow. OUT. 9: Early Fighter. Definitely a contender. 10: To paraphrase Mark in other places, not a horse anymore. I would single the 9 at a morning line price of 45:1. I'd also bet to place on the 9 at that price. If I were a two horse bettor which I'm not, I'd play the 4 as an OTE horse. Good luck. __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.

07-30-2016, 09:36 PM	#17
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Post Mortem The #10 killed all the other speed as they went 22 1st fraction. The winner who I made an EP and therefore threw out when I variegated OTE and due to the layoff: For whatever reason I did not see the 6th line back, 427 days ago: A win at the track and distance while running Sustained. And he did it off a 336 day layoff. I can't claim that I was rushed or really have any excuse other than I missed it and lost the race. I expected a horse to run down the center of the track and win, I just didn't have the right one. The #3 did finish second and paid over $25 to place. But stubbornly refused to change my win/place bet on the #6 when he had a last minute jock switch. Congratulations to the winners and winning exacta betters!!!

07-31-2016, 11:26 AM	#19
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	This was my final screen, though I did not post it. It looked to me that the 8 had pressed several times and did not get close to the lead until the pace was very slow. It only happened once, so I made this horse a P. I kept the 1 to reinforce my pace idea. The 8 ran closest to the lead in my view without needing it. The stretch call position and time did it for me vs. the others. Attached Images

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07-30-2016, 08:04 PM	#11
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	I worked this race and have the 8-9-10 as my final three contenders and would play these three in an exacta box. If the 9 horse goes off any where near its morning line I would bet it across the board. Rmath

07-30-2016, 08:35 PM	#13
MikeB Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 154	I agree on the 9. There are 5 horses here that are nominally 'E's, but the 4 and 7 look to be down in their form cycles, and the 10 hasn't raced in 280 days and isn't the horse it used to be. None of the OTEs look to be able to seriously press the pace. That leaves the 9 and the 1. With good odds, I bet them both, otherwise pass the race.

07-30-2016, 08:47 PM	#14
sureshotlink Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: the great race place Posts: 205	9 horse has 2 running styles E and presser. Doesn't need the lead to win. 9-7-10

07-30-2016, 09:07 PM	#15
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Won by the 8 then the 3 and 2 at $12.20

07-30-2016, 09:20 PM	#16
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Dave nice call on the 8 to win right on top

07-30-2016, 09:50 PM	#18
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,145	Nice job by Dave and Mitch who also pointed to the 3 as a saver bet. Rich Mathie also had the winner listed. Tim

08-01-2016, 12:26 PM	#20
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	Thanks Lads, Obviously enjoyed watching this race, even if I did have to stay up to approaching 2:00am to watch it!