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07-18-2016, 08:07 PM | #11 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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smaller circumference, less chance for a closer to get going,
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
07-19-2016, 01:56 PM | #12 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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One of the MANY reasons that Euro imports don't do as well as they should on the smaller INNER turf courses around and why they EXCEL on the longer ones.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
07-21-2016, 05:44 PM | #13 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Chart for third fraction, fps and beaten lengths
With the Saratoga meet starting tomorrow and all that great turf racing, I thought a chart with fps and beaten lengths might be helpful to some. I use it with the Third Fraction on the 'Velocity-PoH' screen. Of course, 12-second furlongs equate to 55 fps, which was my mental arithmetic until I decided I wanted something more granular.
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07-22-2016, 10:47 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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The old saying of know your track is paramount when handicapping. Since our models are based on our capping each of us may see the same track a little differently. We must however be aware of changing conditions. In July when there is little to no rain in N.Y the Belmont turf courses tend to become like cement and early horses tend to dominate. When racing returns in Sept. one must be prepared for a change in the courses when its a little wetter and less humid. Also the turf sprints become different animals when the distances go back to 6 & 7 f from the 51/2 run at Saratoga all meet longer. Same thing goes for the dirt routes with the return to 1 turn races at 8 & 8.5 fs as compared to 2 turn only routes at Saratoga where these distances are not carded.
Tim Tim |
07-25-2016, 11:10 AM | #15 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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I divide turf courses into three main areas.
1) the phoney turf courses. THese are the ones, usually not well maintained, that are an "after thought" to the majority of main track racing. The combatants are usually dirt horses filling in the uncommon turf races with the very few turf horse on track. Inner bull rings for the most part, speed usually does very well as the deep closers have not long lane to catch the field. These tracks usually NEVER move the inner rail too. Places like Mountaineer, Penn National, possibly Fort Erie, Evangeline (but with all the new turf races carded there it is changing), Canterbury? Parx, Santa Rosa,Turf Paradise... 2) The putting greens: tracks like Del Mar and sometimes Santa Anita that are cut down so much over a very hard bse that speed again has a good chance here. Don't know enough at GGF to put it here or the in the TRUE arena. 3) the TRUE turf courses where the grass is deep, well rooted and the field can get a hold of it: Arlington, Belmont, Aqueduct, Saratoga, USED TO BE Gulfstream but with year round racing and their poor timing problems don't think it is up to snuff any longer, the Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, Monmouth, Delaware, Ellis, Keeneland, Laurel, Pimlico, Tampa Bay, Louisiana Downs?, Kentucky Downs, Indiana Grand?, Woodbine...Little Fort Erie has lots of low end turf races now for the animals that cannot break the 20K claiming barrier to get to Woodbine so that is niche all to itself.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
07-25-2016, 10:18 PM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
As I remember, the Handicapping Magic method computed two factors, a speed rating adjusted for early pace and a final fraction time adjusted for beaten lengths. Pizzola said that the latter was much more important in turf routes. Thanks for any help on this. |
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07-26-2016, 07:26 AM | #17 | |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Quote:
If no horse qualifies the odds board beckons as the final arbitrator to see if a wager is made.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 07-26-2016 at 07:28 AM. |
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07-27-2016, 05:57 AM | #18 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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use the TPP as your guide to pace line selection of turfers
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
07-30-2016, 10:33 PM | #19 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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INTERESTING PATTERNS:
Over the years I have found that pace analysis often picks horses that run first and third, The so CALLED splitzacta, YET On TURF, and at big prices too, that pattern is more often the BOTTOMZACTA: top pace selections run 2nd and 3rd with a long priced (and illogical) winner above them. Great templates for a tri investment.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
08-02-2016, 01:55 PM | #20 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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Thanks Tim
Quote:
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