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Old 07-18-2016, 08:07 PM   #11
Tim Y
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smaller circumference, less chance for a closer to get going,
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Old 07-19-2016, 01:56 PM   #12
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smaller circumference, less chance for a closer to get going,
One of the MANY reasons that Euro imports don't do as well as they should on the smaller INNER turf courses around and why they EXCEL on the longer ones.
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Old 07-21-2016, 05:44 PM   #13
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Chart for third fraction, fps and beaten lengths

With the Saratoga meet starting tomorrow and all that great turf racing, I thought a chart with fps and beaten lengths might be helpful to some. I use it with the Third Fraction on the 'Velocity-PoH' screen. Of course, 12-second furlongs equate to 55 fps, which was my mental arithmetic until I decided I wanted something more granular.
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Old 07-22-2016, 10:47 AM   #14
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The old saying of know your track is paramount when handicapping. Since our models are based on our capping each of us may see the same track a little differently. We must however be aware of changing conditions. In July when there is little to no rain in N.Y the Belmont turf courses tend to become like cement and early horses tend to dominate. When racing returns in Sept. one must be prepared for a change in the courses when its a little wetter and less humid. Also the turf sprints become different animals when the distances go back to 6 & 7 f from the 51/2 run at Saratoga all meet longer. Same thing goes for the dirt routes with the return to 1 turn races at 8 & 8.5 fs as compared to 2 turn only routes at Saratoga where these distances are not carded.
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Old 07-25-2016, 11:10 AM   #15
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I divide turf courses into three main areas.

1) the phoney turf courses. THese are the ones, usually not well maintained, that are an "after thought" to the majority of main track racing. The combatants are usually dirt horses filling in the uncommon turf races with the very few turf horse on track. Inner bull rings for the most part, speed usually does very well as the deep closers have not long lane to catch the field. These tracks usually NEVER move the inner rail too. Places like Mountaineer, Penn National, possibly Fort Erie, Evangeline (but with all the new turf races carded there it is changing), Canterbury? Parx, Santa Rosa,Turf Paradise...

2) The putting greens: tracks like Del Mar and sometimes Santa Anita that are cut down so much over a very hard bse that speed again has a good chance here. Don't know enough at GGF to put it here or the in the TRUE arena.

3) the TRUE turf courses where the grass is deep, well rooted and the field can get a hold of it: Arlington, Belmont, Aqueduct, Saratoga, USED TO BE Gulfstream but with year round racing and their poor timing problems don't think it is up to snuff any longer, the Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, Monmouth, Delaware, Ellis, Keeneland, Laurel, Pimlico, Tampa Bay, Louisiana Downs?, Kentucky Downs, Indiana Grand?, Woodbine...Little Fort Erie has lots of low end turf races now for the animals that cannot break the 20K claiming barrier to get to Woodbine so that is niche all to itself.
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Old 07-25-2016, 10:18 PM   #16
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Pizzola, a former teacher at PIRCO, suggested the simplest of answers: GRASS horses DO NOT have form cycles like dirt/artificial surface horses. Rather than simply evaluate the best of the last several, OPEN up the past performances to ONLY use the best of whatever number of lines are available.

Once this was done a very profitable angle evolved: TWO lines better than the field. Find the best two TPP lines of each horse. Eliminate from those. Sounds simple and it is.
It's been a while since I read that book by Pizzola. Are you saying that to compare two horses, you pick the 2 best pace lines from each, and to eliminate one of them, both pace lines of one horse must be better than either pace line of the other? What do you do if there is no horse that qualifies?

As I remember, the Handicapping Magic method computed two factors, a speed rating adjusted for early pace and a final fraction time adjusted for beaten lengths. Pizzola said that the latter was much more important in turf routes.

Thanks for any help on this.
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Old 07-26-2016, 07:26 AM   #17
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It's been a while since I read that book by Pizzola. Are you saying that to compare two horses, you pick the 2 best pace lines from each, and to eliminate one of them, both pace lines of one horse must be better than either pace line of the other? What do you do if there is no horse that qualifies?
Two lines from EACH entrant on grass and eliminate the weakest ones. When TWO lines from the SAME horse rank 1 2, the return is phenomenally consistent...not great mutuels but steady.

If no horse qualifies the odds board beckons as the final arbitrator to see if a wager is made.
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Old 07-27-2016, 05:57 AM   #18
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use the TPP as your guide to pace line selection of turfers
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Old 07-30-2016, 10:33 PM   #19
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INTERESTING PATTERNS:

Over the years I have found that pace analysis often picks horses that run first and third, The so CALLED splitzacta, YET

On TURF, and at big prices too, that pattern is more often the BOTTOMZACTA: top pace selections run 2nd and 3rd with a long priced (and illogical) winner above them.

Great templates for a tri investment.
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Old 08-02-2016, 01:55 PM   #20
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Thanks Tim

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I used to shy away from turf as I could rarely do well over it. Over the years I have discovered why SOME of that was a problem (timing is notoriously bad over the lawn at most venues because of lack of compensation due to rail placement, and all those trips that make good efforts look less than spectacular) UNTIL I read Micheal Pizzola's book Handicapping Magic.


Pizzola, a former teacher at PIRCO, suggested the simplest of answers: GRASS horses DO NOT have form cycles like dirt/artificial surface horses. Rather than simply evaluate the best of the last several, OPEN up the past performances to ONLY use the best of whatever number of lines are available.

Once this was done a very profitable angle evolved: TWO lines better than the field. Find the best two TPP lines of each horse. Eliminate from those. Sounds simple and it is.

One of the most impressive turf runners I have seen in person over the years was Court Vision (Breeder`s Cup Mile, where he beat Goldikova, and Woodbine Mile winner). His third fraction velocities were almost on par with many a sprinter's OPENING fractions. IN evaluating this horse for that Breeder`s Cup race, I had to go a ways back to find his best two, but in using those he was right up there with Goldikova and hit for a very nice price.

LESSON: Don`t handle turfers pace line selections like a main track horse.
Tim in this post as well as your later posts you make several excellent observations on turf racing that I did not consider. Thank-you for sharing this with us.
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