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Old 03-29-2014, 10:49 PM   #1
DocSartinLearner
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Fulcrum Pace Query - 2014 Derby Stakes Prep Races

Note: relocated from another Thread, which had nothing to do with 'Fulcrum' ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirty moose View Post
I'd like to listen in...
Hi Ted, Dirty Moose or anyone alive in this clinic...
During these two Saturdays on Derby preps, I could not get the Fulcrums to work out!
Desperate in need of help!! - I would appreciate it your assistance and help.

Thanks.
DSL

Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-30-2014 at 11:41 AM. Reason: housekeeping - this topic had nothing to to with another thread on (upcoming) 'RDSS Online Clinics'
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Old 03-30-2014, 03:16 AM   #2
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Which races were you looking at DSL?
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Old 03-30-2014, 10:56 AM   #3
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'RDSS2 Online Clinics'

Quote:
Originally Posted by dirty moose View Post
Which races were you looking at DSL?
Hi, dirty moose - good morning.
I have the races downloaded in my RDSS2 and looking at Derby Prep races of Sat. 3/22/14 Spiral Stakes at Oaklawn Park,
of Sun. 3/23/14 Sunland Derby G3 Stakes at Sunland Park,
of Sat. 3/29/14 The 2014 Florida and Louisiana Derbys.

For neither of those races I could not get the Fulcrum pace; before, I never had any problem, because Bill V. thought us how a long time ago.

dirty moose, any idea of doing it differently? or report it to Ted as a bug!!

Thanks.
DSL
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Old 03-30-2014, 12:06 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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DSL,

As usual, I don't really understand you ...

RDSS does not compute or otherwise display something labeled as 'Fulcrum'. I'm sure others have discussed and taught how to determine a Fulcrum (a concept from Michael Pizzolla). Perhaps they will respond here. I never read about the 'Fulcrum' in the Follow Ups, or if I did, I forgot about it and would not say that I look for it when I handicap a race. I'm sure others do, and can help you.

I don't see how RDSS has a bug related to this, because RDSS does not do 'Fulcrum'.

RDSS does show the last paceline for each horse (Original, Adjusted, etc). It does show you who set or ran against that fastest pace, last race (FPLR). See the many discussions in the Hat Check Matchup Forum re Fastest Pace Last Race. I suspect this is indistinguishable from the 'Fulcrum'.

Does that regularly give you good info - the 'Fulcrum'? Is that all you need to get the winner, or understand the Early Pace?

Consider the following readouts from yesterday's Florida Derby at Gulfstream (one of the 4 Derby Prep Races you mention). These line selections are the Last Line (just use the 'Last Line' PSS). As it happens, with so few running lines for some of these hroses, and they are improving, good young horses, even the 'Best of Last 3 Comparable' PSS selected the last line for the top 4 contenders (I made the bottom 4, on the BL screen. non-contenders).

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If the 'Fulcrum' is the horse who set (or ran against?) the fastest pace in everyone's last race, then there it is, on the Original screen. If it is something else (useful), or there are more nuances - I hope to learn.

There is certainly more analysis that can be discussed about why the Top 4 Contenders on the BL screen above should or shouldn't be in the positions shown, but clearly Cairo Prince at 6/5 bet-time odds should look better than he does above (i.e. a favourite with some 'defects'). The Winner #4 Constitution can run from off the pace as well as on the lead, which is how he ran.

Admittedly, there is a scarcity of running lines for Constitution and who knew if he was goning to find running room, coming on late on the rail (he did).

However, there were some clues - also clues that those 2 Fighters for the lead #1 and #6 would tire themselves.

I'm not sure what contribution to the analysis (at least for this race) knowing how to determine a 'Fulcrum' was. Whatever it is, you can get the same (and more) insight by Matchup analysis and by dissecting the components of the BL Line Score, then determining price available relative to the horses' rankings. IMO.

(FWIW, our Teams picks in the PA Contest: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...1&postcount=48)

Hope that helps - or at least prompts more discussion.

Ted
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Old 03-30-2014, 12:40 PM   #5
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Who can run against the fulcrum

DSL

As Ted explains there is no bug.
The fulcrum is very easy to find on RDSS I can't see how Ted could make it easier, unless you wanted RDSS show you the fulcrum automatically which to me would make the readout useless.

All you need to do is select the last line for each horse.
Then look at the EPR pace of race
Now who ran less than 5 BL at the 2nd call and final time ? against that fastest time.

In the Florida Derby
The fulcrum horse was the 110.1 which the #1 Wildcat
and # 6 General ran against

The Fulcrum is just a tool. The actual POR for the Florida Derby
was 112

What is interesting is, here are the horses in the FD
who have run cometivily against a POR of 110.1 all did well the 2 who could not match did not win or finish in the money,

Horse1 Yes Place
Horse2 No
Horse3 Yes
Horse4 Yes 109 Win
Horse5 Yes
Horse6 Yes Snow
Horse7 No
Horse8 Yes in sprints of 7 and 6 furlongs

The fulcrum is not so much a good thing for thaose who
can run against it, Its more of a negative gauge to horses who can't match the fulcrum.
Like horses 7 and 2 and questionable horses (from sprints) like the 4 and 8
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Old 03-30-2014, 03:40 PM   #6
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The Chart, from Ramon's ValM thread:
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Old 03-30-2014, 04:33 PM   #7
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From Count #4
Ted, as always, thanks so much for this very interesting thread; right now, 'Fulcrum Pace Query' is not so important, because you explained throughly what RDSS *does * show the *last paceline * for each horse (Original, Adjusted, etc).
I'm going to read more on the many discussions in the "Hat" Check Matchup Forum reference *Fastest Pace Last Race *. So MUCH to discuss here.
It was not my intention to ALTER the passage from the Topic *RDSS2 Online Clinics *, to another 'Fulcrum Pace Query - 2014 Derby Stakes Prep Races'.
Thank you Ted - I confirmed it, Bill V. confirmed it too that there is NO BUG!

DSL
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Old 03-30-2014, 06:30 PM   #8
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Reply to Bill V.

Bill V., in numerous occasions you have explained the concept about 'Fulcrum', and even Mr. Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw discussed that knowing the Fulcrum, it will not make the horse win.
From Count #5 of this thread, you truly explains everything and, will concentrate on selecting the last line (paceline, that is) for each horse, then look out the actual POR and do some analysis for each horse who runs less than 5 beaten lengths at the 2nd call time for Sprints and at six furlongs for Routes of one mile and longer and Final Time comparing against the fastest time.

Thank you, Bill V.

DSL
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