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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-10-2019, 09:27 AM   #1
rdiam
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Win Betting Guide

I have put together this Win Betting Guide as a template to help structure win bets. Use as you see fit:

To start, it is important to narrow a race down to 3-4 win contenders. If you can't do that, you or your software do not understand the race will enough to bet.

If all 4 win contenders are priced at 5-1 or higher => PASS, as there is something going on with the race that is creating that structure (i.e., a heavily bet favorite) and you or your software are generally not that smart.

Minimum odds levels for "value" bets: top tier >= 5-2, second tier >= 4-1, third tier >= 6-1, fourth tier >= 8-1

Structure for "selection oriented" bets:

If your top 3 tiers are all priced at 4-1 or higher => bet all 3

If your top 2 tiers are priced at 3-1 or higher => bet both

If your top tier is priced at 5-2 AND your second tier is priced at 4-1 or higher => bet both

If your top tier is priced between 8-5 and 2-1 AND there is a horse priced at 7-2 or lower NOT in your top 3-4 Win contender list => bet your top tier

If your top tier is priced between 4-5 and 3-2 AND there is a horse priced at 3-1 or lower NOT in your top 3-4 Win contender list => bet your top tier

If your top tier horse is priced below 4-5 => PASS on win bets for this horse unless you are getting a rebate of 8% or more

This approach tries to incorporate the current realities of racing today with short fields and rebate syndicates creating an environment where favorites are winning close to 40% and top 2 favorites winning close to 60%. You should end up betting a mix of favorites/second favorites with a smattering of longer priced horses.

Richard
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Old 08-10-2019, 11:46 AM   #2
mick
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Well done. You put a lot of thought in it and it brings together several "statistical" concepts we've discussed plus a few new ones.
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Old 08-10-2019, 03:14 PM   #3
Bill V.
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So Kind

Thank you, Richard,

It is very appreciated that you shared this betting lesson
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Old 08-11-2019, 10:12 AM   #4
rdiam
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False Overlays

One addition to the betting template to avoid false overlays:

If the favorite is bet down below 8/5, and NONE of the odds on the other horses is below 5-1 => pass on win bets for this race

Richard
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Old 08-11-2019, 11:43 AM   #5
Dorianmode
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I just use a dutching calculator ... I know how often I win for that type of race, and I know what the minimum payoff I want from a single or dutched bet (2-3 or even more) horses.
One raw number. Seems simpler than dealing with rules ... for me. But whatever works for others is what works. Thanks for these guidelines.
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Old 08-12-2019, 07:19 PM   #6
ignacio todoberto bernal
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Hi people wishing you all well! ......i need a dutching calculator ...can someone help on this .....?

... Yours truly ignacio
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Old 08-13-2019, 08:03 PM   #7
Dorianmode
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Dutching calculator

Hey Ignacio,

I figured you'd get a bunch of replies with links ... sorry I didn't reply earlier.

I can send (maybe post) a dutching calculator (Excel) for anyone who wants one. I'll clean it up, and make sure everything is working. Do you want a 2 horse, 3 horse or 4 horse version ? Actually in the 4 horse version or 3 horse version you can just set the (imaginary) odds on a runner you don't really want to a very high number , and it won't even compute, basically. Also there are free ones online.

Cheers.
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Old 08-14-2019, 06:05 PM   #8
ignacio todoberto bernal
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hi dorianmode, salutations to you and advance thanks you help, it will be nice if you post a dutch version for 3 and 4 horses?????

IGNACIO
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:34 AM   #9
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Richard,

Well thought out. Do you not find it difficult to follow odds so precisely? I guess you go by what the board shows as the horses are loading. Odds can change drastically after the start. Going by minutes to post is too vague a decision point with tracks like GP running 5 minutes after scheduled post. How do you deal with this issue?

Thanks,
Mike
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Old 08-16-2019, 09:42 AM   #10
rdiam
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Although precision is the goal, the reality is that we can only estimate the odds we will actually receive in a pari-mutuel betting pool. But realize that indecision comes only when the current market odds "close" to post time are around an odds decision point: i.e., when you require 5/2 or better, you are watching only when the tote odds are 2-1/5-2/3-1, etc. If the horse is 1-1 you know you are going to pass, and if the horse is 5-1 you know you are going to bet.

In addition, so-called "lookback" lines are quite useful and accurate in predicting where a win betting market will close out -- that is, using the "will pays" in the daily double pool are highly predictive of final odds in the current race win pool.

Finally, we can assume that betting "errors" are distributed randomly, so that for every time we make a bet below our threshold, there will be cases when another horse is bet down late and we receive a bit "extra" as the odds on our horse rise at post.

Hope this helps.

Richard
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