Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-25-2019, 10:55 PM   #1
Hanger
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
5-25-19 Fulcrum

I reviewed some old posts, and wanted to post something from today, and see how I got there, and hopefully get some critique along the way. I made notes from this race today in real time, and am typing it up now that I am home..

SA Race 7
Last Line

Who is the Fulcrum?


The 2 has the fastest EPR, but was not within 5 BL which takes me to the 4. Sure enough the 4 was the EPR of 85.0 and was within 5 BL at both calls.


Is this normal for the 4 horse?


Here is where it gets tricky....One could argue in my opinion that this is not normal for the 4. Which moves me on to the 5. 3rd best EPR, but look how much more consistent this horse is.


So I call the 5 horse the Fulcrum here. at an 83.5EPR. Going by this my contenders are-
1- No Too Much EPR and Not strong enough LPR
2-Competitive EPR, but lacks the LPR to finish
3-2nd slowest EPR, but Strongest LPR- must consider
4-2nd best EPR, middle of the pack LPR- maybe? we already know inconsistent
5-Our Fulcrum- Good EPR, but again middle of the ground LPR
6-3rd Slowest EPR, 2nd best LPR- will have to consider and dive deeper.
7-4th slowest EPR, 3rd best LPR- maybe a tri/super contender?

So right now I am looking at 3,5,6 as my win contenders in this race.

Looking at the segment tab, all these horses are close on total energy- given what we know about Route Turf races, I am gonna have to say the closer gets this job done. Im tempted to play the 6 here as its truly the overlay, but feels like the 5 and 6 get lost in the middle of the pack- hopefully the 5 can hold and stay on the board.
Hanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-25-2019, 10:57 PM   #2
Hanger
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
The result- Followup questions-

Was I wrong for not taking the 4 as the fulcrum?
How much to value LPR vs weak EPR in this scenario?
I used last races for the fulcrum, but usually have been preferring selecting my own pacelines or the best preceptor- at what point do you switch from last line back to best preceptor to ensure its a good analysis?

Any other info?

Hanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 08:30 AM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Dave;


You ask some very good questions and obviously are doing some research. Old research can get a person into trouble because the concepts of Sartin evolved very much over the years.

With the fulcrum as with anything you'll find believers and non believers I'm in the non-believer camp. Jim Bradshaw, an icon of much of this specifically stated "I don't believe in the fulcrum." Nor did Sartin. That has always been good enough for me. I also consider it a waste of valuable handicapping time. By picking proper contenders and pace lines one gets the true match-up and the program figures all that out.

I also follow Sartin guidelines of picking the best line of last 3 at a comparable surface and distance. Of those lines I use the Preceptor which outperforms human judgement as to which line is correct. The Preceptor is one of Sartin later tools he came up with prior to passing. Essentially he figured why not rate every line with the computer to find the best one. Then took it a step further by rating each line with the 7 Primary Factors against itself. Note: don't use the preceptor for final decisions. There are a few better factors which consider the match-up etc. that outperform it. But for selection of pace lines its the ultimate bomb of a tool.

As far as pace lines there are many times the last line is correct and many times it isn't. Those that rigidly lock themselves into always selecting the last line will win races and lose races because of it. I.e. 3 yr. old tend to improve and mature as the season progresses, whereas older have already reached maturity. The last line is more of an indication of form more than it is the correct line. One would have to do a complete study on that to actually see it from the results. Sartin has already done this which is why he says;"best of last 3 at a comparable dis. & surface." It flat out produces more winners and better prices.

Just looking at your first screen shot and assuming the lines were correct my contenders would have been the 3.5.6.& 7 based on analysis of the TPR screen.

One of your best questions was "Is this normal for the horse? This is a question I frequently ask. To get its true running style and other things. The match up will cause a horse to get out of its comfort zone and run counter to its true style causing it not to win and or run a bad race. I don't want to pick a line that is counter to its true running style.

This is my opinion and the naysayers can have theirs. Some just never progress and its like wanting to remain in the first grade because you like the teacher.


Onward to a diploma,
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 09:10 AM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Fulcrum

Hi Sir

If you feel the fulcrum will help you please use your own feelings,
You really put a great deal of thought into your use.
I believe in the fulcrum, Its a quick and easy way to do pace analysis'
The fulcrum is from the book Pace makes the race written by amongst others
Doctor Howard Sartin
As you know finding the fulcrum is not a "waste of time " Its only a negative if you want it to be.
Anyway, in your example, I would not have used the 3, 4 or 5 as the fulcrum
because of the 8-furlong distance. I find that its best to use a race from the same distance and surface and within 1/2 furlong as today's distance.
Today's distance is 10 furlongs. since there are few 10 or even 9.5 distance races , I will forgive and use only the 9 furlong races for my fulcrum .

I would use horse 7

If you feel the fulcrum is a good tool for your complete tool kit use it
You did a good job, today congrats and good skill

Name:  Horse    7.PNG
Views: 846
Size:  129.4 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 10:49 AM   #5
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
At one time the fulcrum may have been the in thing but as Doc states in his 1998 1on1 video he no longer believed in predicating the pace of the race as he once had. He pointed that visual perceptions were far less predictable then the compounded ratings in the newer program. As has been stated one is free to use what ever approach they chose but I myself go with the Docs' latest teachings. Wishing much success on your journey to profits.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 11:48 AM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Mitch and Tim

hello friends



Tim the fulcrum is not a "visual perception" of predicting the pace of race
It is very much is a calculated representation of the EPR,
EPR is a primary factor, one of the many compounded ratings in both the primary and preceptor readouts. Instead of saying the horse is #1 EPR
Phase 1 and the fulcrum uses the horse with the highest numerical rating
for the Early Pace Rating

The issue here is not saying fulcrum is better than what you guys believe
It's a specific tool being discussed in a specific forum

"I HATE FISH ! said the man in the seafood restaurant
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 12:26 PM   #7
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Bill I didn't say it was, I said the Doc went away from the visual matchup where we attempted to project the pace of todays' race. And like Mitch I did hear both Doc and Jim state they weren't using the fulcrum.To be honest I don't recall ever hearing the fulcrum mentioned at any seminar I attended. Like I stated folks can use whatever the want as long as they win with it. More importantly I hope you are feeling good my friend and looking forward to seeing you at he Spa.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 01:28 PM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Thanks Tim

Thanks Tim

Yes today i feel pretty good. I am at Del Mar. I cashed my super Friday tickets
I am busy at the table west and we are ready to roll.

In race 3 at GP


This is how I use the fulcrum ( one way)
Look at the EPR ratings, I fully expect the ERP to be within 3 of a 78

Name:  Fulcrum.PNG
Views: 836
Size:  59.2 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 05:18 PM   #9
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
i AM ALIVE

i am alive in the pick 4 and 5 at Santa Anita
But we are looking at incredibly short prices for both

In the all-important fifth race, The 2 is the fulcrum.
He/she should control the early pace, having come out of a front running ITM showing against graded company


Name:  Fulcrum.PNG
Views: 841
Size:  101.6 KB

Name:  LAST LINE.PNG
Views: 804
Size:  60.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2019, 05:52 PM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Its a misnomer to associate Sartin writings within the PMTR book as condoning the Fulcrum. He wrote an introduction, overview and a chapter on Advance concepts. He would also say later that the only thing of value in it was the Advance Concepts chapter, and much of that still resides within RDSS.

I challenge anyone to show me in writing where he condoned it or for that matter endorsed it. He did allow members to express themselves however that does not mean he condoned it or endorsed it. If it had any worth at all it would be part of the RDSS program of today.

In Follow Up # 83 on pg. 64 he states; "Our own book, PMTR was purposely removed from the market by me because it outlined a method far too simplistic to be of current value to all but the simplistic. It is my firm opinion that when a couple of my original co-authors hawked the title, they edited out anything that was of the slightest value in the original."(2nd edition)

He also later would state that one of his biggest regrets was putting in the Pace Line manual to use the last line unless there was a valid reason to go back. This is exactly why he went to using a line from the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface in later teachings along with proven regression analysis that it out performed the last line for both winner getting and for higher paying mutual.

Bill I wish you great health and success with those p-3 & P4's.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fulcrum review Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 5 04-14-2017 11:34 AM
Fulcrum vs. Match Up kpmats10 Matchup Discussion 41 11-17-2016 02:49 PM
Fulcrum Pace Query - 2014 Derby Stakes Prep Races DocSartinLearner RDSS2 / FAQ's 7 03-30-2014 06:30 PM
Finding the Fulcrum CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 7 02-14-2014 03:39 PM
Setting the fulcrum POR Bill V. RDSS2 / FAQ's 11 02-12-2014 10:41 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:24 AM.