Handling late odds shifts with Sartin methodology betting - Pace and Cap

derrick24948 · 06-15-2023, 08:10 AM

I'm curious how folks are handling the drastic late odds shifts that are the unfortunate reality in today's game. Everyday a horse enters the gate at 5/1 and is 3/2 by the 1st call.

My general approach is to bet two horses to win per race at minimum final odds of 5/2. I either bet my top two contenders or one of the top 2 and the 3rd contender (if the odds on one are too low). It feels like an archaic approach as we never know what the actual odds will be anymore. Too often situations occur like: the 1st and 3rd contender because the 2nd contender is 9/5 then the race runs and the 2nd contender floats up to 3/1 and wins and the first contender drops to 3/2. My handicapping will be right, but I miss the betting because I don't know the actual odds.

What do you all do? Just make a decision based on odds as horses are entering the gate and hope the odds shifts will work out in your favor as often as not? Use the double will-pays to calculate implied final odds and bet accordingly?

Lt1 · 06-15-2023, 08:25 AM

Hi Derrick. I don't worry about things I can't control. I bet with the odds I see before the race starts and let the chips fall where they may.
Tim

Mitch44 · 06-15-2023, 10:51 AM

Great answer Tim and I also do the same thing. After being laid up for 4 months it seems there is less of that going on now. I never did a study, but it may be happening in higher class races as they look at that as sure things.

In racing as in life, we can't worry about things out of our control, or we can't exert an effect on. Another example is drugs. My theory is I have just about a chance as anyone else to land on a horse like that.

Mitch44

ranchwest · 06-19-2023, 01:41 PM

1) Bet tracks that restrict rebates on win wagers. NYRA has the best policy. Del Mar is a good one.

2) Use a line other than the morning line or the tote so you'll have some idea of where the odds might potentially end up.

3) Rely most heavily on your Sartin numbers when you think you have a distinct advantage in the likely odds.

ranchwest · 06-19-2023, 05:22 PM

4) Watch the will pays.

MJS6916 · 06-20-2023, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest

4) Watch the will pays.

The first board I look at immediately after the previous race becomes official.

06-15-2023, 08:10 AM	#1
derrick24948 AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 15	Handling late odds shifts with Sartin methodology betting I'm curious how folks are handling the drastic late odds shifts that are the unfortunate reality in today's game. Everyday a horse enters the gate at 5/1 and is 3/2 by the 1st call. My general approach is to bet two horses to win per race at minimum final odds of 5/2. I either bet my top two contenders or one of the top 2 and the 3rd contender (if the odds on one are too low). It feels like an archaic approach as we never know what the actual odds will be anymore. Too often situations occur like: the 1st and 3rd contender because the 2nd contender is 9/5 then the race runs and the 2nd contender floats up to 3/1 and wins and the first contender drops to 3/2. My handicapping will be right, but I miss the betting because I don't know the actual odds. What do you all do? Just make a decision based on odds as horses are entering the gate and hope the odds shifts will work out in your favor as often as not? Use the double will-pays to calculate implied final odds and bet accordingly?

06-15-2023, 08:25 AM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,110	Hi Derrick. I don't worry about things I can't control. I bet with the odds I see before the race starts and let the chips fall where they may. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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06-15-2023, 10:51 AM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Great answer Tim and I also do the same thing. After being laid up for 4 months it seems there is less of that going on now. I never did a study, but it may be happening in higher class races as they look at that as sure things. In racing as in life, we can't worry about things out of our control, or we can't exert an effect on. Another example is drugs. My theory is I have just about a chance as anyone else to land on a horse like that. Mitch44

06-19-2023, 01:41 PM	#4
ranchwest Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,489	1) Bet tracks that restrict rebates on win wagers. NYRA has the best policy. Del Mar is a good one. 2) Use a line other than the morning line or the tote so you'll have some idea of where the odds might potentially end up. 3) Rely most heavily on your Sartin numbers when you think you have a distinct advantage in the likely odds.

06-19-2023, 05:22 PM	#5
ranchwest Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,489	4) Watch the will pays.