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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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12-22-2013, 11:55 PM | #121 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Matt
Some of the races I agree with and some I don't
The problem is If I say which line I would use, your just going to get others to come on and tell you that they would use other lines, then you will get lots of " there are more than one way to win " comments, and then you will be right back were you started from What I'm trying to say is, Its up to you to decide what you want to do. with your pace line selections, Now some of the races I would chose the line you did for a reason of class other races I would disagree with your choice based on form, other races I would either agree or disagree based on statistic evidence. What I'm trying to say is, I would say reread the pace line manual and all the post in this thread, then make your decisions based on if your winning or not. and being consistent. Hope this helps Bill |
12-23-2013, 10:53 AM | #122 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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My view of the first example is that horse broke maiden in the slowest paced race of his life, must have been in a herd of snails. His last 2 races the nearest he got to the lead was in the gate. Drop him from W contention.
Too much to remember on the others, but the one called Silk Lace I like line 1 because IMO it more nearly fits today's conditions (I feel the other parts of the race are more important than difference between SA or O-Cl designation), is more recent, and because it is from PRX instead of Mth. I always view last out on this same track a positive for the entry.
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Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
12-26-2013, 03:38 PM | #123 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2010
Location: norwood, ma
Posts: 29
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Just follow the guidelines
After several months of following the guide lines. The most important factor to consider is consistency of picking pace lines. I have notice in lot of my handicapping in the past has not been consisted in my approach to picking pace lines.
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06-15-2014, 05:29 PM | #124 |
Guest
Posts: n/a
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the "guidelines" is good to follow if you are looking strictly for "winners" only, regardless of the 'class' type of the race. i would however, be interested if anyone has done an "ITM" stats study on this? cheerz
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06-18-2014, 10:21 AM | #125 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2010
Location: norwood, ma
Posts: 29
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Yes, I have. approximately 500 plus races from the following tracks, Bel, Aqu, Sar, Sa, Hol, Dmr, Gg, Gp, Fg, Cd, Kne. The win and exacta percentage for each pace line selection method of RDSS program.
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06-18-2014, 10:48 AM | #126 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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What is your approach to picking pace lines (if that is OK to ask)?
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Terry |
06-18-2014, 12:04 PM | #127 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
Pizzolla's basic rule for pace line selection is to always use the most recent race unless there is a good reason not to. The major reasons include: 1. a negative layoff pattern 2. negative surface (e.g., turf vs. dirt, off track, etc.) 3. negative structure (e.g., sprint vs. route, 1 turn vs. 2 turn, etc.) 4. trouble line in last race 5. last race was at too high a class level, dropping back today If there is a good reason not to use the most recent race, use the 2nd most recent. If there is a good reason not to use that race, go back another race. If there is a good reason not to use that race, the horse is probably a non-contender, unless it shows some class and is returning to conditions where it has won in the past. |
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06-18-2014, 02:06 PM | #128 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 496
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Looks a lot like the paceline manual.
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06-18-2014, 03:13 PM | #129 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Same stuff. As I remember, Pizzolla was involved in writing that manual.
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06-18-2014, 03:19 PM | #130 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank You
Thanks GFNut and MikeB
I think if you follow these guidelines and this thread pace line selection becomes very simple and effective. I have RDSS set to pick the last . I then change the line if I have to. When I use best of last 3 preceptor auto select I often glanced up and said yeah but ... and then use the last line anyway. Either way is good but I find the last line and pace line manual guidelines to be easy to follow and stay consistent. You must be consistent. It is critical if you have a profile and model |
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