Grade 1 Aspiree

[SilentRun]

Hello,

My name is Ernie, I am a new member and I have been learning about RDSS
for about 1 week. I have been away from the ponies for about 3 years and have previously used an outdated version of Speculator. I have to admit that my results were, how should I put it ?....less than outstanding.

I have read back posts and they are loaded with excellent information.
I thought that the post about the importance of the E/L was relevant.
I ran dozens of sprints from the demo db and yes there were a lot of speedballs that won or were ITM that stood out early. Thank you for that.
That's a potential window of opportunity. I hope to make some future contributions myself.

I would like to achieve some reasonable ROI, but what is reasonable ?
I believe Sartin threw out 60- 70%, which for me was in La La land.
I feel that if there is any one stat that you must track, it is your ROI.
Maybe it is presumptious to ask this but would anyone be willing to throw
out some real ROI percentages. I realize this is based on an individuals experience, skill level and making use of pertinent records. Ok a range is good.


Looking forward to future interactions.

Ernie

[Tim Y]

ROI is a completely INDEPENDENT variable to the program readouts. No TWO people interpret then the same way or apply the varied outcomes to the same courses.

BIAS is the game I play and using the E/L., I moved my "tack" to the East where reading it race to race is a gold mine.

[SilentRun]

Thanks, Tim, for your feedback. I am in concurrence regarding the predictive
power of the E/L. I have started modeling E/L, EPR, LPR and TPP for sprints only (5.0 - 6.5f) by track.
I could always enhance the model as I go along but at this point I am more comfortable with sprints
than routes or the Turf.

Ernie

[Mike A]

Hi Tim Y,

I'm very new here....when you say bias, do you mean an early vs. late pace bias that a given race yet to be run is projected to run based upon the dynamics of the pace matchup in said race? (And if so, are you referring to an energy readout like "percent median" or "percent early", or is it directly based upon relative fractional time, adjusted or otherwise?)

Or do you mean an early vs. late bias of the particular racing surface? (And based upon a basic track profile/ Brohamer model?)

If you mean "race to race" literally, I would have to lean towards assuming you are referring to either an early or late pace bias projected for the upcoming race, or you are using some method beyond the basic track profile that I am familiar with (as someone not familiar with RDSS).....although I'm not sure how you would do this on an actual ract to race basis (??).

Needless to say, you have me pretty curious, and in the final analysis I don't want to assume too much at all...I'm here to learn.

[Tim Y]

E/L RELATIVITY is the key. There are no hard and fast numbers that are unwavering. Knowing the acceptable RANGE of earlier e/l numbers relatifve to the entire field gives you the edge.

Bias is usually a degree of EARLY. I have NEVER seen a late bias on a dirt course..... NEVER as the physiology of exertion makes that a bit impossible since what we see as a late run MOST of the time is the result of the pace falling apart rather than late horse actually being favored. I have seen LANE biases a few time the most notable of which was the 1989 Breeder's Cup at Churchill Downs when NOTHING moved up near the rail (Easy Goer found this out when Pincay kept Is It True 4 wide most of the way and had enough let to beat the odds on colt). Our little bull ring in Vancouver has had TWO days in my following it for the last 30 when the rail was not the place to be after sand was added only to the 4 path inwards.

Following the e/l CAN, and DOES allow you to have an insight on how the day is running. MANY MANY days on the inner Aqueduct surface, it can be so far biased early that NOTHING comes off the pace for days at a time. Knowing that any particular day was that biased will help you the next time out when evaluating a horse that benefited by that bias the next time it starts. Fort Erie, when it rains heavily, can st up the very first horse out of the gate as the winner race after race due to the goo that results from those down pours.

It all goes back to the very difficult time a closer has over a speed horse. The leader has EVERYTHING their way, the path, the pace and dictates to the field as the only ACTIVE pace maker. Good riders steal races with lesser stock ALL THE TIME as there is this fallacy the late moving riders have in that "the pace will come back to me" and it does not the way they predict.

Remember this is all about DIRT.

Classier animals are LESS subject to this but I would only make that distinction at the highest levels of racig.

[Mike A]

Thanks for the great explanation, Tim, what you say makes sense...I had thought it was something along those lines but wasn't sure.

..And yeah, that class-at-the-highest-levels thing..agree there too...I'm just glad that, for our practical (and dare I say profitable) purposes, pace plus final time ability is a good enough approximation of class, at most levels.