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03-24-2017, 11:19 PM | #1 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Betting on Longshots
This is an interesting article that I re-read periodically. It's a "Q&A" with Justin Finch, TimeForm's West Coast analyst.
http://timeformusblog.com/2015/02/19...-all-there-is/ Finch is a smart guy and if you have about 20 minutes, it's worth reading. The gist is that while we think we know things, we really don't. A horse race is inherently unpredictable and some are down right chaotic. Post-time favorites do win a third of the time, but it's the other two thirds that make this game so interesting. And if you're willing to put in the time and have the courage to bet the prices, profitable. BTW, he mentions Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the ultimate contrarian stock trader who makes fortunes on market disasters. I've read his "Fooled by Randomness" and plan to read his other books. A lot of this is in the back of my mind when I'm about to bet on a Tier 3 horse going off at 15-1 and on the PPs, doesn't look like he has a chance. But we really don't know how the horses will run and RDSS has found something in a paceline that just might be significant. I'm writing this after I took a thrashing today but I can hardly wait until tomorrow's first race. No, my wife doesn't understand but she loves me anyway. |
04-17-2017, 02:45 PM | #2 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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The Black Swan
After a solid first quarter, I have been shortening up, so to speak, and for the last couple of weeks, have had little success wagering. Time for a layoff for this old horse. I need a freshener to get ready for Derby Day!
So, rather than betting, I have been reading Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan." Great book! If you're looking for something to read, I would recommend it. It's not about horse racing but there's much in it for a horse player to think about. |
04-17-2017, 05:00 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Have a good rest Mick.
I have seen the term Black Swan used elsewhere in investing, namely The Contrarian Investors 13. It is a book by Benj Gallander and it has a picture of a black swan on the cover. About contrarian investing it refers to black swans as home runs with the bases loaded, multiple baggers, or any superior ROI. I am sure your book references the same. They are what we wait for. They are what keeps us going. They can only be had by being contrarian. Which if you are into this methodology you are. Glad to see you had a good first quarter. I too did well. My black swans came mostly in January but that is the nature of our game as fluctuations can be severe. The sooner a player can measure success over longer terms the better. Hope to see you back in a few weeks. Pook |
04-17-2017, 06:36 PM | #4 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Hey, Pook! Always good to hear from you, friend.
You are spot on with black swans. Mr. Taleb uses the term in a bigger sense, like unpredictable, world-altering events that turn everything, and in particular the stock market, on its head (e.g. the 9/11 attacks, the sub-prime mortgage debacle, and so forth). But his arguments and his points scale down nicely to horse racing. He's brilliant, articulate, and entertaining. It's an exceptional book and I recommend it. What makes it doubly good for me is that I keep hearing "wagercapping" in my head as I read. I sincerely doubt that Nassim Taleb has ever heard that word and it is certainly not on the written page. But while he and Doc Sartin are separated by years and years, I believe those two men were/are on slightly different frequencies of the same signal. I'm hoping to come back an inspired guy, ready to bet those Tier 3 and 4 horses at good prices. |
04-17-2017, 11:13 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Mick,
Your post reminds me of a memorable quote by Doc: " The first four finishers in the vast majority of horse races often go by the finish line in the blink of an eye" We as wagercappers must demand value in order to survive this game long term. Enjoy your Sabbatical Happy Reading! Paul |
04-26-2017, 12:13 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 153
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Another Book
A book that I found interesting was "Probability Theory Live" by Ion Saliu. He is a lottery/casino player who has a distinctive approach to randomness. He has some minor comments re horse racing, but it is not his focus.
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04-30-2017, 08:30 AM | #7 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Thank you for the recommendation. I'll add it to the to-read list. I assume "Arkie" means Arkansas. Oaklawn Park has become one of my favorite meets and a trip to Hot Springs is on the calendar for next Spring.
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05-02-2017, 06:23 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
Either he's the world most brilliant mathematician that nobody knows about (and way above my pay grade), or he's a legitimate mad scientist whose ideas will leave you still a bit hungry after trying to digest all of them (plus fomulas). Good luck ... (and let me know if anyone discovers any pearls). Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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05-03-2017, 03:33 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Probability Theory, Live!
Probability Theory, Live!
Reviewed by Catherine Thureson May 18, 2010 Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that examines the likelihood of one particular outcome or a group of outcomes for any event. In Probability Theory, Live! author Ion Saliu, who studied political economics in Romania before immigrating to the US, presents a formula in which probability equals n (favorable elements) divided by N (total elements), or p=n/N. In the first section of the book, Saliu attempts to explain probability theory in detail. He presents the history and some important concepts, such as numeric sets, standard deviation, and probability of repetition. He discusses the idea of randomness at length, asserting that it is the only method of interaction between elements in the universe. Saliu also introduces what he calls the “Fundamental Formula of Gambling,” which, he explains, is “the number of trials, N, for an event of probability, p, to appear with a degree of certainty, DC.” Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future. To explain this he uses an example of two men playing a best-of-three backgammon series. After the first match, the player in the lead has a 75% chance of winning the series, while the player who lost the first game has only a 25% chance of winning. He attributes this concept to Blaise Pascal, who is considered the father of probability theory. Probability Theory, Live! serves primarily as an advertisement for the author’s Web site. Saliu has created a number of probability software programs that are used chiefly for gambling purposes. Much of the book is devoted to the different software programs and the ways in which they can best be utilized. The author’s tremendous ego is on display here, and he makes some truly remarkable and unsupportable statements. At one point he writes, “I consider myself the best blackjack player ever.” In another instance he states, “if all gamblers would be like me, following probability theory instead of guts, then there would be no casinos.” He also reveals his contempt for academic mathematicians. In a discussion of lotto wheels, he writes, “the professors come up with all kinds of approximations that look like mathematical formulas (by highly symbolized notation and heavy dosage of jargon). The margin of error, however, is as large as the area of Canada!” The overall credibility of the book is damaged by statements like the above and the fact that, as he admits himself, his fundamental formula of gambling has not yet made him rich. But for readers who are looking for new gambling methods, particularly in games of blackjack, roulette, and lotteries, the book will hold some appeal. Disclosure: This article is not an endorsement, but a review. The author of this book provided free copies of the book and paid a small fee to have their book reviewed by a professional reviewer. Foreword Reviews and Clarion Reviews make no guarantee that the author will receive a positive review. Foreword Magazine, Inc. is disclosing this in accordance with the Federal Trade Commission’s 16 CFR, Part 255. |
05-03-2017, 08:04 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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One thing I learned in 20 years of service in the Army is that theory and demonstrated performance are entirely two different things. Its like a new Lt. coming from West Point, brilliant mind and education however has two left feet and couldn't find his way out of a wet paper bag. With time, training and the correct guidance and tools some go on to become great leaders and Generals.
As the review said; " he admits himself, his fundamental formula of gambling has not made him rich." His theories have yet to be proven. Where does that leave us? It leaves us with the proven theories of Sartin concepts which evolved over many thousands of races and years of testing. The Sartin road isn't a smooth journey and like the Bataan Death March many along the way fall by the wayside. However its theories have been proven and no others have surpassed it. Its an earned degree that still requires proper application and experience to rid oneself of two left feet and obtain demonstrated performance. My journey took many years before that light bulb got turned on. Sartin's brilliant mind was able to read others theories and relate that to horseracing such as Entropy. Obviously an exceptional individual that few can duplicate. Grasping that relationship to horseracing he then proved those theories through years of testing. Unless you have a brilliant mind like a Sartin or Bradshaw and are ready to test those theories over many years and thousands of races the answers aren't contained in books of theory. No the answers are all contained within the Sartin writing and teachings which now are all consolidated in RDSS. He has cleared the road of obstacles and mines for us. Mitch44 Mitch44 |
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