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Old 11-08-2007, 12:14 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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0 Variants on New Surfaces

A Spec160 user wrote:
Races ran at Santa Anita with its new surface appear in the past performances with zeros for track variant.

... do you think that false zeros in track variant throw off the adjustments. The speed ratings for these lines often seem a little faster than their usual and the times a little quicker.

I often avoid these lines by going further back, however they are the most current and so most telling of the horses current form.
Response:

For a new track or track surface (e.g. PID or OSA this autumn, or GG right now), TrackMaster shows the Daily Track Variant (and the internal Inter Track Variant) as 0 because there are no pars established yet for the new surface from which to establish variants. Their policy is, for shorter meets (e.g. OSA, PID) to generate a set of pars within 14 days of when the meet closes then re-cast the DTVs and ITVs for that track. For longer meets (e.g. AP earlier this year, or GG now) they do a first pass to establish pars about 6 weeks into the meet, recast the DTV and ITV figures (so they won't be 0 anymore), then rework them again within 14 days of the end of the meet. Finally, DTVs and ITVs for all tracks get updated annually in January.

I would expect that lines from OSA this autumn should start showing up any day now in Past Performances for other tracks (e.g. HOL) with actual DTV values (i.e. not 0).


In the meanwhile, they have a formula which they use as a stop-gap until pars are generated which consists of a variant based on the aggregate TrackMaster speed ratings for the final runners in each race. This stop-gap variant is buried in their SR number, which Val4, Spec160 and RDSS examine to decode an ITV which is used to adjust the call times. This process is imperfect when a new track with no pars comes on line, and I think I can do a better job than the (RDSS) software does currently (Spec and Val won't be changing). It is a tough call, and any individual race may end up misadjusted, but I have seen no evidence so far that just accepting that interim adjustment – on aggregate – will cause you to overrate more horses than you underrate others. In otherwords, it may wash out over 20+ races.

I have some specific experience with doubting this stop-gap adjustment in SoCal when rating a few horses coming from DMR (with its new polytrack) and running at FPX and OSA. Iron Duke comes to mind. That horse rated well using the interim adjustments to its DMR lines and it won 2 more races at good prices before folks started respecting it a bit more. Using the 0 DTV for its DMR line(s) (when the DTV was still 0, and not refigured later) got 2 juicy mutuels.

Ted

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