Negative Drops

[Bill V.]

Hi Ryan

Again we are looking at a 3 year old. Look at its only win. Its a 7.5 Turf maiden claimer with a $75000 purse, but its restricted to 3 year olds only
I do not know much about GP. But I suspect that maiden turf win was a very
artificial high purse and claiming level. These young horses could be very valuable turf horses.
Turf purses are generally much higher than dirt and turf races for 3 year olds only are even higher , This is to protect the owners from losing there horses
before they find there value.

I see this as not a negative but a horse who was not what they once thought t was - a turf router. It may just be what it is from its MC win about a 16000 claimer ?

[Bill V.]

Today at Parx was Owner Appreciation Day It is the second biggest day
next to the Pennsylvania Derby for Parx

Look at the purse values for today's races
wow !!!!

Lets focus on race 7. A open $8000 claimer.
Parx sprints normally have a $18,000 to $23000 purse




Today the purse is $46000 !!!!!
All the purses today are inflated to reward the owners of horses who have run at Parx

So now would you say the Regal Strike is a neg dropper ?
Claimed for $16000 and almost always wins or runs plus races in the 12.5 and 16000 range, But today drops to $8000 but for a $46,000 purse !!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Today at Parx was Owner Appreciation Day It is the second biggest day
next to the Pennsylvania Derby for Parx

Look at the purse values for today's races
wow !!!!

Lets focus on race 7. A open $8000 claimer.
Parx sprints normally have a $18,000 to $23000 purse

Attachment 38213


Today the purse is $46000 !!!!!
All the purses today are inflated to reward the owners of horses who have run at Parx

So now would you say the Regal Strike is a neg dropper ?
Claimed for $16000 and almost always wins or runs plus races in the 12.5 and 16000 range, But today drops to $8000 but for a $46,000 purse !!


Attachment 38212

Bill,


I believe that you are absolutely correct to point out the purse value that a dropper is competing for. We cannot focus solely on the claiming value.

On a different perspective, in the last paceline, this horse was on the early pace only to fade in the stretch to finish 5th. But it was positive, as he faded against a fast closing fraction of 24.6

final time of 109.7 minus the early pace of 45.1

Great post.

PS.

Bill, can we create a "Redboard" section for posters to post to their heart's content.

[Bill V.]

Hi Lone speed

Yes that is a fast pace of race. It also is a valid excuse as it was shipping to Mth - first try at new track in the current meet -

Bill V.

P.S.

I have no energy to create a post for redboarders
It is not the purpose of Pace and Cap to look negativity on any other member.
Nor is it important to single out those who redboard. Yes its true there are red boarders here. Ignore them.


If you read a post and get nothing out of it because you doubt its validity
the poster did nothing but sooth his ego and own self doubts

If you read a post that helps and teaches you , absorb it and let its teaching guide you.

"it all depends on what you are trying to accomplish...TEACH or BRAG!!

I've never seen a book whose purpose was to TEACH and posted races prior to the running of the race.
TEACHING is ALWAYS post race."

[Capcondo]

Last year at the get together at Del Mar, Bud told me that there are 70 different class designations at Woodbine. On top of that, Bill L. says that purse values go up for horses at Del Mar who last ran out of state and Bill V. has a nice illustration of what happens at PARX on owner appreciation day. Let's look at these horses based on the fractions they succeed and fail against.

I Love It:

Two back, he failed in a sprint with trouble at the start. He's sustained enough as it is. The last race, he ran against 23.3 46.7, fractions he's never been able to handle. This hardly shows he's a bum. After he won, he didn't run well after being dead last at the first call as the 8/5 favorite (sustained enough?). The next race he got in trouble at the start yet again.

Pillar of Strength:

His last race failing against a 22.2 45.1 was much faster than anything he faced before but as Bill V. pointed out, he'd never been on the poly before hardly justifying a 2/1 price.

Gibson Bullet:

This horse had shown very little in any race at any distance on any surface since his maiden win. This is a bad sign. I think his best race was at 5f on the dirt at CD. Not my sort of horse. He ran 5th after having problems at the start. No surprise.

Looking at the paces horses can handle and those they can't might give some indication of negative drops.

Bill L. and Bill V.: Hope all is well. I don't post regularly but will try to do so more in the future.

Tim

[Ryan.p.coli]

Circling back on this, I really had no clue about class when I was asking these questions, more or less just betting using the RDSS readouts and no context. I have since taken a step back to more or less to get a "classical" education in the sport. An education in the nuances of handicapping go a long way in understanding how the crowd moves, which I think is the most important element of handicapping.

I agree with the comment above that the sport has significantly changed compared to many things written in the publications from the 70's and 80's. James Quinn's latest book was published in 2012. He explains the nuances present in all classes and class changes. I can't recommend it enough.

RDSS has substantial value, as it will unveil longshots that the crowd is ignorant to. As I continue to enter the contest world, which is heavily dependent on differentiation from the crowd, I will re-continue my use of the software with more perspective.

Thanks all for the initial responses and patience. I hope this group can continue to be a great resource for those trying to learn more.