Anaylize This

[shoeless]

Since I am VERY WEAK looking at fractions and being able to setup a race I wanted to know from you astute cappers how you would decide to play this race.I wanted it just from the fractions alone,my take is that Image will run down the speed and win.Also would hidden energy be the same as looking at a race from the half mile call to the finish.Thanks Shoeless

[Rxlawyer]

Jeff:

I would love to know how far the race is going. Looks like it is probably 6f.

I do not think I am particularly astute at handicapping, but I will give you my comments. There is a very good chance that Image will be a non-contender in the race. Why?
1. He will be substantially behind the leaders and 2nd call advantage is not that strong. That means he will have a lot of horses to pass to get to the lead.
2. He is not even the best 2nd fraction horse. That means he will likely need to make his move on the turn. Horses coming from behind that are strong 3rd fraction only horses frequently go wide, lose their momentum on the turn and hang.

3. SC B/L shows him very far back and still reasonably out of contention, at least at that point.

4. 3rd fraction is not even that strong. The earlier horses will be able to "coast" on their speed. Image will have to work hard to come from behind. I doubt it.

One last thought - all of the above is based on the assumption of good pace line selection - which I am sure you did a very good job.

Gary

[shoeless]

Gary, Dont you think because he is the only horse over 50 in the race that is a strong 3rd fraction.I thought the 2 speeds would end up killing each other.Thanks and as I well know you are very astute.Jeff

[Dap Daddi]

Shoe:
From the screen shot above I would consider Ellen as she/he looks to be able to press the leader and at the top of the stretch take the lead. It all depends as to how fast the forst two fractions oare ran. 2/5 of a second slower and the front speed holds. 2/5 faster and the come from behind horse(s) win!

Dap

[shoeless]

Dap,Thanks,I need to get a lot of practice at this if Im going to hopefully one day understand any program.Im in the camp of you better know the fractions first not the rankings.Jeff

[Rxlawyer]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Gary, Dont you think because he is the only horse over 50 in the race that is a strong 3rd fraction.I thought the 2 speeds would end up killing each other.Jeff

JEFF: NO, THE 50 DOES NOT MAKE THE HORSE ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE. IT IS TRUE THAT THE SPEED HORSES MIGHT KILL EACH OTHER, BUT THEN THEY WILL ONLY CLOG THE WAY FOR THE CLOSER. LOOK TO A PRESSER. GARY

[shoeless]

Gary and Dap first of all thanks very much for trying to help me with this ongoing problem Im having .Both of you guys were right it came in Lucky and Ellen.My top three were Image,Lucky and Ellen this is what I mean by that I get the race down to 3 but dont know how to close the deal.I wish there was more talk here about setting up a race this way but I think most people use graphs and rankings.Jeff

[Forego]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Since I am VERY WEAK looking at fractions and being able to setup a race I wanted to know from you astute cappers how you would decide to play this race.I wanted it just from the fractions alone,my take is that Image will run down the speed and win.Also would hidden energy be the same as looking at a race from the half mile call to the finish.Thanks Shoeless

Shoeless.

would you be able to put up other screens of the software for that race?

also any feedback regarding positive or negative trainer info on your "top 3"

can you also post "off odds" of your "top 3" ( Image, Lucky, Ellen)

also the % med on "Image" looks very low. Can that win at that track?

[Rxlawyer]

JEFF: I HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE OF COMMENTS ABOUT MODELING, SUCH AS THE COMMENT FROM FOREGO ABOUT THE %MED BEING TOO LOW. THAT IS A GOOD POINT AND MIGHT HELP YOU SUBSTANTIALLY. gARY

[shoeless]

Forego,Here are the screen shots.Image and Lucky went off 7-2 and Ellen went off 7-1.Lucky was just claimed trainer was 13% with this.Ellen really had no trainer moves and Image was 6% when trainer won last start.