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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-08-2019, 11:26 AM   #11
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairchild View Post
Thanks Mick
I will look that up.
Most races the PP lines to use are easy to see. I was just curious what you guys thought about the preceptor and how you work around horses that preceptor chose off tracks for and when preceptor chooses races that are many days ago.
Last night at Delta I avoided horses that hadn't ran for a long time and got bit. In race 2 I got beat by a horse that had not ran in over 300 days and in race 4 the horse had not ran in over 200 days. In FTL's posts he states that those horses only win around 5% of their races, I used up my 5% last night. That"s the breaks
Hi Fairchild,

The long layoff is one of those unknown factors one should take into consideration when deciding the viability of making money on a race. The key in cutting losses is identifying those races where multiple horses sport various unknowns. It’s a lot easier to win when the races you play have limited to zero noise. Dealing with unknowns can cause confusion and lead you onto horses that really are not contenders. Limit the unknown factors in your handicapping and you will have greater success.
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Old 02-08-2019, 12:48 PM   #12
Mitch44
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Thanks MicK.


There are at times where the Preceptor rates more that one race very close. Here is how I handle that situation.

Do as Mick states and hold down the control key than pick more than one line for the horse and it will rate both on BLBL


BLBL is better than the Preceptor for evaluation of a line because it considers all the horses whereas the Preceptor only considers the horse itself.


The Preceptor will 95% or better give you the correct line however it doesn't consider the match up of contenders such as BLBL does. But when the Preceptor ratings are very close without a nice gap what I do is the following:


1. Pick lines for all your other contenders.


2. Come back and compare more than one line for the horse in question. This allows BLBL to use its full power such as the match up and determine the correct line when unsure between two lines.


3. If the horse in question is your first contender for line selection your at the mercy of the programs automatic line selection being correct for proper evaluation by the readouts in the final pane screen with final readouts of all horses, such as BLBL. Much easier to come back after confirming or picking lines for your other 4 contenders.


4. For success all lines picked by the program should be reviewed for confirmation and that you concur, or you'll incur unnecessary loses. I confirm with the Preceptor.


Sartin taught back in the 1990's to use the power of the program and computer to decide on a line rather than your own bias or what you think is the correct line. The program is smarter than us in many ways.


Its not the norm to find very close rankings in the Preceptor but when confronted with it the solution is a simple one.


Mitch44
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Old 02-08-2019, 07:21 PM   #13
Fairchild
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I certainly appreciate all the help everyone has been willing to give.
Most days I have been able to get the right contenders. What I am working on now is learning to pass races that are either too noisy or don't have the odds necessary for the risk.
I generally only play 1 track on any given day so it is really difficult to pass on a race, but it is necessary to make a profit.



I hate passing a race when the odds don't justify the risk only to have the odds improve on 2 of my contenders after the bell.
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Old 02-08-2019, 07:33 PM   #14
rdiam
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Unknown Factors

In a post above Jeebs wrote: Limit the unknown factors in your handicapping and you will have greater success.

I disagree. Sure, if you measure success by how many winners you can pick, then go ahead and limit the unknown factors. But guess what: a race with virtually zero unknown factors will be easy to handicap for everyone betting the race, and it is highly unlikely the winner will be +EV. Especially when the syndicates and rebate players all land on the same horse(s) in such a race.


You will only find +EV these days when there is some uncertainty in the race, especially when the uncertainty requires some sort of human judgement or analysis that computers cannot easily handle.


Remember, if you are looking to actually make serious $ betting in a pari-mutuel pool, the object is NOT to pick more winners or fewer losers. The goal is to find the 60% of races where the favorite does not win and bet (and win) on horses that pay $10 or more, except, of course, if you are betting large enough to receive a serious rebate on your churn.


Richard
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Old 02-08-2019, 09:24 PM   #15
Mitch44
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Fairchild:


In reference to post #10 of this thread and layoffs. I absolutely don't agree with FTL in reference to both layoffs and horses whose Morning line is 20-1 or higher. Yes the stats are low but there is no qualifiers to those stats therefore they are totally misleading.


I have no problem with layoff horses or long odds horses and can handle those situations. I posted how I do that but I'm not going to sound like a broken record here. Look up my posts and you'll find that. Layoff horses win more races now then they did years ago. Sartin said once a horse has been off over 30 days their form is no different than a horse that has been off a year.


Racing has changed however we still encounter the same problems on a daily basis such as layoffs, cutbacks, stretch outs etc. Either learn how to handle them or pass many races.


If one wants to know about the unknown than study the unknown.


Mitch44
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:26 PM   #16
Bill V.
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Gp

Some tracks offer better value from layoff horses than others
Also class of races and playing all type of races will get you better prices.
from layoff horses


For example, looking at Gulfstream Park
For the winter meeting which started on Dec 1st
In my current model. I have 237 races for older male and female
horses, No maiden races and no races with less than 7 horses

In those 237 races, 105 winners were off 30 days or less
132 winners were off over 30 days

The average win price for the 105 winners off 30 days or less
is $13.30

The average win price for the 132 winners off 30 days or more
is $12.26

When Doc's refers to recency of horses winning with layoffs over 30 days
He does not provide track specific data, He did teach that to be a consistent
winner only personnel record keeping is the best way to know what wins at the tracks we work,

his words of "know thy track " said it best
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Old 02-09-2019, 06:49 AM   #17
Mitch44
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Generally speaking and my in experience layoff horses do pay more. Now I have seen layoff horses that have been absence for a year or more and the public makes it the favorite and it'll win. I would never bet a horse like that as there is no risk reward there which is one of my criteria to bet long layoff horses.


Averages distort the normal occurrence of anything being measured to include the average depth of a river. If you can't swim one better not cross as an average depth of 4 feet may become 10 feet along the way. Average prices is something I just don't factor into any of my handicapping.


Some of those Monkey bombs I hit are horses specifically off over 90 days. The public tends to buy into old racing axioms of yesteryear. Class step ups are another the public overlooks.


I would say that at least 20% of races the public just cannot deal with and these races pay big. Many of these horses are very gettable. This game is about making profit. The majority horses won't be qualifier's, no different than many races aren't playable. Just like any race money management is a key ingredient for any recipe, particularity of horses or races that don't fit the norm.


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Old 02-09-2019, 09:32 AM   #18
Bill V.
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Data

Hello Mitch and all

I present these data findings not to question Doc's teachings
Throwing out horses or saying the best prices all come from horses off over
31 days is fine, However, successful gambling and or working races involves expectations and probabilities.

The way I work races and at the tracks, I work I have more success
working with expectations and probabilities.
It works for me.

In my recent post about my near $500 pick 5 with a $6 ticket,
4 of the 5 races were won by horses paying less than $10
One race was won with a $17 price.

All 5 winners were horses whose last race was a + plus race
less than 30 days These type horses win consistently and when grouped together can pay off nicely.

Race 1 #7 29 days Paid $7.80
Race 2 #2 29 days Paid $6.40
Race 3 #2 21 days Paid $17.60
Race 4 #1 27 days Paid $9.20
Race 5 #5 29 days Paid $3.40

Pick 5 paid $488

Best Skill to all

Bill
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Old 02-09-2019, 09:36 AM   #19
Bill V.
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More facts and data

In my model of 237 races
here are the days since last race and winning prices for horses that paid $10
or higher

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Old 02-09-2019, 10:23 AM   #20
Fairchild
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Wow My little question about preceptor line selection has really generated a lot of good information, thank all of you very much.
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