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09-06-2008, 08:56 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Pick Three Betting Strategy
"Throughout the years, there have been many articles on the advantages and disadvantages of these multirace wagers. Many authors have endorsed playing Pick Threes and Pick Fours by suggesting that their multirace structure results in a superior betting proposition. The reason for this, they argue, is that the track takeout is spread across three or more races. Steven Crist makes this point in his 2006 book, Exotic Betting, using the supermarket concept of buying in bulk as an analogy. Thus, a player betting a Pick Three with a 25 percent takeout would have a better result than if a player used the same horses in a parlay at a takeout of 17 percent..."
You can read the full article here |
09-06-2008, 05:13 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA.
Posts: 2,531
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pick 3
dick mitchell does a very detailed lecture on his old tapes/dvd's about playing the pick 3. 2 different ways. one bet is select oriented. the 2nd, very complicated with bet costs of 80-100$ a race. the day i viewed this dvd and got to this section, i think i fell asleep
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i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others. |
09-06-2008, 06:15 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Doc's Method
Doc suggest a 3 x 3 x 3 format
cost $27.00 for a $1 bet In addition, Bet to win any horse with going off odds of 4/1 or higher of the 9 runners By the way the biggest hit I ever had on a Pick 3 bet was when Richie P, Our friend Mark, and two old friends Freddy ,and I think Fast Eddie or Joe beard went in as partners We did not follow Doc's guidelines As we singled a horse in the 3rd leg Leave it to Richie P that horse he built the whole pick 3 on and singled, It won and paid $41.00 Late in the day at either Santa Anita or Hollywood I did bet it to win place and show The Pick 3 paid $604.00 ! Bill |
09-06-2008, 07:40 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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I bet pick 3's and daily doubles exclusively for over 5 years from 1994-1999. I don't ever remember making a win bet. I paid my bills and supported a 15k a year powder habit doing it.
I would play pick 3's only when I could find a single in one race and he was nowhere near being a favorite. The other 2 races I would go 2-4 deep depending on contention/value. This was when I was typing in pace lines from the Racing Form to Pace Launcher 4. My biggest hit: It was Breeder's Cup day and i had gone to the Meadowlands to bet it and then take in the live card that night if I was still solvent. I had a $250.00 bank for the day. I bet the Breeder's Cup and got smashed. Had like 20 bucks left at card's end. I was sitting in the Franchises and had a table with this dude Dave (sort of friend at the time). I decided to take a walk outside to get air as I was preparing to pack up and bail. As I walked out of the Franchises there was a bank of those betting terminals. I heard one buzzing and there was nobody at any of them. I walked over and saw a $192.00 balance showing. Someone walked away from it. I got the voucher went and cashed it and then proceeded to start capping that nights Meadowlands card. It was an off track. I remember because I found a horse in the very last race of the night named Chinese Checkers at 20/1 morning line. He was like 3 for 60 or something crazy like that. But on wet tracks he was 2 wins and a second from maybe 5 starts. He looked horrible recently flashing speed and quitting like he was shot each time by the 1/2. All the way on the bottom of his pp's showed a slop race where he wired the field at long odds. I used that line and typed it into Pl4 along with the rest of the field. Old "Chinese" was right on top of the pile if he could somehow get back to that long ago line. I told Dave I was singling him and worked up a ticket going 3x3x1 which was 9 clams for every dollar ticket. I gave him my numbers and went up to bet. I punched the ticket 3 times for a buck each and came back. First leg I get the win at maybe 11-12 beans something like that. The second leg I catch a longer priced horse again. I forget the exact price but it was well into double digits. I'm psyched cause now I am into the last leg and they flash the $2.00 pay with "Chinese" at well over 3 grand. I'm holding 3 $1.00 tickets on the number. Dave comes up and asks if he is partners with me cause he didn't bet on his own. I laughed in his face and said NO. Silly rabbit. I went outside to watch the race and Chinese was breaking from the rail I believe. he goes off long odds. Don't remember exact. Gate pops and Chinese goes right to the top as he always did. Only this time he never stopped and wired the field winning by a neck. I remember running outside down the stretch trying to get him home. Lmao I had Dave cash the tickets for me threw him like 500 bucks and walked out with thousands where a few hours earlier I was basically busted. True story. Then I got busted in 2000 spent 2 years away from society to come back in May of 2002. Funny thing is when I came back I completely changed my betting 180 degrees to strictly win betting. I guess I needed to completely block out that part of my life and I have never gone back to the exotic bet save a couple of scant times. Back then there wasn't rolling picks like they have now to the best of my knowledge. Find a value singleton in one of the races and build the ticket around him (her). That was my M.O.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
09-06-2008, 08:57 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Tears
Dear Rich
As much as i lived this all I never knew your secret problem. Just one day you stopped being at the table I'm really going to lose it. But you made it. You came back to see me. My family will forever be grateful that you were the "friend from NY that taught me how to win" and who I nearly died of sadness when I heard your call from upstate The Pick 3 story Rich posted is so true... That is the true friendship he showed me. All those years working together with me he never let me know... I will never forget those days the real man in you was the one you showed me then and the man we know today Great health love and respect to you Bill |
09-06-2008, 09:50 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
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I use the Pk 3 as alt to the Pk 4 when I have strong feeling about the 1st 3 legs of the Pk 4 and Racing Sec cards impossible Maiden Claiming race or one these gotta win cheap claiming race as the last race.
I sometimes like to roll Pk 3 on the early Pk 4 1st+2nd+3rd = one ticket 2nd+3rd+4th = other ticket Also like to Roll the Pk 3 on loaded Stakes cards Derby Day 2007, I made enough to pay for my Derby trip and new HD TV when I got home and I don't remember playing more than a $12 ticket As rule, I play $24 max $1 Pk4 tickets and $20 max $1 Pk3 exceptions to the rule on big stakes (Breeders Cup, KY Oaks & Derby, Big Cap Day) when the pools are large. I usaully need a Single or a race with a over betted beatable favorite to play In other words, I either play cheap or play to score
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Joe |
09-07-2008, 02:55 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Great story, Richie. I have a similar one I'll tell someday (minus the powder).
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09-07-2008, 01:57 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 131
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Pool size.
A very important factor to look at before venturing into a type of betting is the POOL SIZE. My home track often had less than $ 1,800 in the PK3 pools, very very seldom would there be more than $3,000. You can't win more than what is in the pool. The higher the risk of lossing a wager the greater the need for large payoffs.
Since PK3 are a form of win betting I will look at it if I have a Prime bet in the first leg( this is the only race odds you can see in the series) who is going off at more than 4 to 1 and in one of the other races I need to get this race down to 2 horses with one of them at atleast 3-1 and the other double digit odds. The other race needs to be a garbage race which is impossible to pick. This race I cover almost all of the horses. A pick 3 that is paying less than $ 400 I don't need. If I am going to hit it I want the BIG ONES, let the crowd have the small ones. Mike. |
09-07-2008, 04:44 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Quote:
The tax takeout on large wins must be figured into your calculations. You just aren't getting the price you think you are when 28% or so is withheld. |
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09-07-2008, 07:07 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 131
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Quote:
This is right on correct. One major disadvantage of exotic wagers is that if you hit large payoffs you have to fill out a tax form whereas win betting you don't.This is why I very seldom venture into this area. The reason many people seek exotics is becouse they don't know who is going to win so they box a number of combos, hoping to hit a score. This is why most people lose. The only reason why anyone should ever look into an exotic wager is to GAIN LEVERAGE on their PRIME BET. The goal is to MAXIMIZE your advantages, only under ideal situations where the opportunity presents itself should you do this.What I am always looking for is getting the largest edge I can. If I can take a 4-1 prime bet and turn him into a 10 or 15-1 bet thru a pk3 then and only then will I look at this bet . If my prime bet wins I need to have atleast a 65% hit rate on the last 2 races otherwise its a pass.Money that is used for exotics is not available for your win bet, so you must be MORE than compensated for the added risk. All bets are a balance of risk vrs reward. If you want to win make sure the balance is tipped in your favor. Mike. |
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