Alabama @ Saratoga

[Bill Lyster]

Today's Alabama, my 2 cents worth, for the guys at Saratoga

My first thought was that the field and distance looked a lot like the Delaware Handicap a couple of years ago that was the subject of one of The Hat's lessons. Most have raced at or near this 10 F distance and the power moves for most of the horses is their last race.

This is a marathon, so the spot play ideas work here. The top four finishers from the Coaching Club American Oaks on July 25th all ran against 47.1-110.8-135.9 internal fractions.

The morning line favorite, the Canadian filly has won three in a row and pulled away from her last field while passing the mile mark in 136.6 (adjusted back from the finish). However, The Hat Forum document said that The Hat rarely bet on horses who had won three in a row (No reasons stated). If you enter Careless Jewel in RDSS off her last race she looks unbeatable, but I want to bet against for more than one reason.

The first reason has already been stated, but look at how all but one or two horses in this field need to win. Most of these horses have to have the lead at the stretch call (a couple even earlier) and most need open lengths. I think that the 8 gets cooked by the pace; the seven has been fading once past the mile mark or stretch call in her last - out; the six will try to compromise the 5 and with several trying to lead at the stretch call will seriously challenge the 5 who looks not to have been challenged at that call.

I think the 1 is slow, but will be moving in the stretch, but is probably only good enough for 3rd or 4th here.

This leaves the top three from the CCA - the 2, 3 and 4. The two and four will get first run. The two made the lead at the stretch call in last and just lost, but her predominant style is to run from off the stretch pace and close. Funny Moon, the 3, has two wins from just off the stretch call but should be behind the 2 and 4; the four - Dont Forget Gil has needed the stretch lead in her wins but in her last she was moving from just a bit farther back.

In this field I think the best last run wins, so I am boxing the 2-3-4 with win bets on the two highest odds horses out of those three [the 2 and 4 off the ML] , but it could be a garrison finish at the end with so many grouped at the 8th pole.

Best regards and good luck to the attendees. Sorry I couldn't make up to the Spa this year,

Bill