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RDSS 2.1 Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version!

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Old 10-03-2019, 08:48 AM   #1
gillb
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Brohamer Model Results

Has any active member reported on their findings (modeling) of the
key factors. Such as VDC, BLBL RX+ etc. ?
Anxiously awaiting any such report.
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:17 AM   #2
Lt1
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Hi gillb. I use Brohamer models for all the tracks I play but dist and surface. Since the model is based on the handicapping of each person no one elses' work will help you. I only
play 1 track a day so it's easy for me to update my models in real time.
Tim
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Old 10-03-2019, 10:25 AM   #3
Bill V.
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Pacelines

Hi


As Tim says The factors you are looking for are pace line specific.
My models on VDC BLBL and RX are going to be very different then somebody who picks pace lines differently
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Old 10-03-2019, 02:26 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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Bill, is that model you made once (2017/2018?) which had ~900 races in it based on automatic paceline selection?

If so, it counts as 'paceline-independent' since thee is no user judgement or selection involved: you just let the software choose the line and bet and make models accordingly.

If not (i.e. you made paceline judgements), then your comment above applies.

Ted
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:00 PM   #5
Bill V.
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That

That is correct Ted I had forgot about that model. Yes, I was on full automatic never changing a paceline with many tracks included. I will try and dig it up
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Old 10-03-2019, 09:18 PM   #6
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I am tracking only Belmont at this time. One thing I have found interesting is that I add four factors together to get a line score. I have found that by adding the ranking of v/dc, csr,pl and bpp i easily eliminate horses. with less than 8 horses in the field, use a line score less than 20. With a field of 8 or more use a line score of less than 20. this will get the winner around 85% of the time. I use the automatic pace selector.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:51 PM   #7
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
That is correct Ted I had forgot about that model. Yes, I was on full automatic never changing a paceline with many tracks included. I will try and dig it up
I'll look for it too and post if I can find.

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Old 10-05-2019, 02:36 PM   #8
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Bill, is that model you made once (2017/2018?) which had ~900 races in it based on automatic paceline selection?

If so, it counts as 'paceline-independent' since thee is no user judgement or selection involved: you just let the software choose the line and bet and make models accordingly.

If not (i.e. you made paceline judgments), then your comment above applies.

Ted
Hello All my Pace and Cap friends

Here is a RDSS model combining a few models I have gathered for awhile
I have over 1600 races I would say 90 percent are " AS IS" using the RDSS default settings with the best of last 3 perceptor. If a line were changed it was almost always to a more comparable distance or surface

I have merged all my models into Dorianmodes nifty spread sheet with the filters on top from this post:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12493

Here is my spreadsheet:
Filterable profile with data at top Bill V data.xlsx

Last edited by Bill V.; 10-13-2019 at 01:32 PM. Reason: attached spreadsheet (1.55 Mb)
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Old 10-22-2019, 06:30 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
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Earlier this year I modeled SA by distance for both dirt and turf and I also did GP for just the sprint distances of 6f, 7f and 8f. Its in a similar format as Bill V's info with best of last three info, black boxed from RDSS. The SA info stops once they took some time off to redo the dirt track.

There are two files that are rather large and probably cannot be linked to this email, so if you PM me with your interest I will send them via regular email. I also broke down the data by maiden and non maiden, but you will see that once you starting slicing and dicing the data, sample size becomes an issue at times.

In doing these studies I found, in discussions with Ted primarily, that Vdc and all of the Pace of Races stats are arbitrarily high due to ties in the rankings (Vdc especially) and in cases where horses in todays race are coming from the same race, their POR numbers are the same so sometimes you have 4 "best" numbers for 1F, 2C, etc. which makes a top 4 rank unuseable.

In general, the CSR info is better for dirt races. Top 3 or 4 data from final odds can be a little suspect, because in all cases these are the final odds from the race chart and those odds or ranks ARE NOT necessarily the same as what you might bet on, one or two minutes prior to PLANNED post time.

Like I said PM me with your regular email and I will send them on.

Bill
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Old 10-22-2019, 08:21 PM   #10
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Bill, we can link them here, I can adjust file size settings if required, as with Bill V's files above. Remind me which ones they are, or a date you emailed them to me and I can upload and link them - if you like.

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