Early Pace with Speculator

[Tim Y]

In Speculator there was a screen that showed how each pace line compared to one another by projected beaten lenghts at each call. Almost routinely, a line would show up as ranked 7th the first call, 5th or worst the second and then WIN the final fraction. A check of the relative pace lines chosen using the screen LONG SHOT DETECTOR (Pace of Race) would correlate to those particular pace lines as SLOW early. CAUTION do not use those lines EVER even if the TPP is ranked high.

As the match up suggests, the ONLY rational yardstick to compare performances is to use relatively the same fractions as a back bone or fulcrum for the field. One cannot compare a pace of race of 47 2/5 to a 44 3/5.

When a slow pace of race is thrown into the mix it gives a skewed 3rd fraction BIG move. If you go down each line in a horse's past performances you can see them STICK OUT with ESP's E/P. S/P, E, E/P, LATE that should shown up like a sore thumb. THERE was no early challenge in that LATE race so there was no dulling of speed and no stressed deceleration in that animal so their 3rd fraction looked very good relatively. DO NOT EVER USE THOSE LINES as they are aberrations.

Recall how the energy exerted at the second call, beaten lenghts (IF you are not on that lead) requires TWO lengths at the final call to catch up even on equal terms. By using these slow paced early races, you are negating that equation and getting a very abnormal 3r fraction for comparison as the result.

[Tim Y]

One of the problems I discovered when comparing Validator to Speculator was the over-reliance on the third fraction in Validator.

While Validator brought out many a TURFER to logical prominence as it used the deceleration more prominently than Speculator, it did not fare as well during most race analysis. PART of the problem, I always thought, was the OVER-dependence.

Also the screen in Spec that compared to the Thoromation screens got skewed late when a SLOW early pace line was chose.

Before accepting a line like that, look over all competitive lines for each horse and you will usually find that the slow early pace is an aberration, not typical for a race shape.