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Old 08-27-2006, 10:55 AM   #11
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Horse 8

We already know about horse 7 Horse 8 was way too low in APV CR

so thats everyone. Now I have entered 6 horse, the entry and horses
3 5 6 and 7. I always work with 5 horses to look for winning patterns
I hide to the top five from the Perceptor scren so the 1a is out
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Old 08-27-2006, 11:05 AM   #12
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Summary

Now here is the summary
With Spec I only look at the E/L and the TS-Delc readouts up in the uppper right hand corner

what to bet
I have a few options
The 7 and the 1 rate best but no value ...
The 7 and the 5 or the 3 ??....
hide both the 7 and the 1 and
bet the 5 and the 3 ...
I commited to the APV and Cr readouts and
am more leaning toward the 7
for the value bet I will stick with the 3

one more time
# 3 APV CR = 98.4% - 0.94
# 5 APV CR = 74.2% - 0.78
and it worked out
Thanks I hope this helped explain how I bet the 7 and the 3
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Old 08-27-2006, 01:37 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
The winner I used Line 1
Reason ? feelings and looking at more than numbers
and this time my stupid
feel sorry for the connections and the trainer mentality helped
The APV and Class ratings are very strong (for this field)
I know Im betting as my first win bet either the entry or the 7
so now I'm looking for value and an edge
The APV and CR tell me it ok
I used the last line because of the purse of $80,000
Line 2 and 3 are bad races finish wise at 8.0 furlong
the get 0's In the form cycle I gave line 1 a 0+ for a nice gain from the
stretch to the finish what about line 4 at ten furlongs ?
This is the line I should us and call # 3 a non contender
I went with the last line instead because of the form cycle
good effort in a bad race 0+ rating and a second try at 11
furlongs in a comperable purse value

Wow very interesting look at this horse man. VERY interesting. Thank you for taking time to spell it out Bill. Let me keep reading please.
Rich
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Old 08-27-2006, 01:40 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
This one needs Very strong readouts with Poor apv and a lower than
normal winning CR
In my head I have been looking at the CR numbers for a cut off point
so for between my memory and tracking only 10 races on paper
a low point on the CR for me is 93 Nothing is 100%
and 10 races on paper is too small a sample
However asking for 11 furlongs and also to beat two solid favorites
with an 80 CR and only 52% APV seems too much
I left it as a contender only so I could judge its readouts
Son of a gun - sly like a fox - so now the RECORD KEEPING surfaces

go head
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Old 08-27-2006, 01:43 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
I always work with 5 horses to look for winning patterns
ok may I ask WHY 5 horses? I have seen you focus ONLY on races where you can get FIVE guys.
Rich
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Old 08-27-2006, 01:50 PM   #16
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
Now here is the summary
With Spec I only look at the E/L and the TS-Delc readouts up in the uppper right hand corner

what to bet
I have a few options
The 7 and the 1 rate best but no value ...
The 7 and the 5 or the 3 ??....
hide both the 7 and the 1 and
bet the 5 and the 3 ...
I commited to the APV and Cr readouts and
am more leaning toward the 7
for the value bet I will stick with the 3

one more time
# 3 APV CR = 98.4% - 0.94
# 5 APV CR = 74.2% - 0.78
and it worked out
Thanks I hope this helped explain how I bet the 7 and the 3
Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I have been losing these long winded marathons for YEARS Bill. I would zig and zag between using the shorter distance horses - not using them etc etc

Now you have given me a SOLID handle and approach to look at these suckers next time they come up.

Tired of losing these sonsabitches.

Very well thought out.
Very well written
Clear with specifics

I am serious. I owe you big time for this and KNOW this had to take probably a couple of hours to piece together and write.

THANK YOU Bill

Rich
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Old 08-27-2006, 02:51 PM   #17
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Race

Thank You Rich

Yes it is worth the work

to answer you question I always work with 5 horses
When I us Spec Val3 (vector) or hand entry EXDc
when I look at a constant 5 horses the readouts and the Ealy
late sticks show me patterns, In this race the 3 TS and 3 Del
somehow in my mind said bet me
the # 1 TS and weak 4 DEl for the 7 should have tipped
me off to bet an exacta with the 6
hey but its easy to look back,,
That really is the reason That I need 5 horses
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Old 08-27-2006, 08:11 PM   #18
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Sure after the fact anyone can move lines around to formulate a "Way To Go" next time, but really what you should say is Read The Racing Form. Just looking at the horse in the form, the 3 jumped right off the page for me. These people are in the game for the money, that is why they enter the race to begin with. This is where Sartin falls off the table and into the basket, people who could read the form and pick winners without a computer start using software and stop reading the form. Sartin programs lines look nothing like the form you buy at the track RIP Guy. Beacuse if they did there would not be this spell checker problem. Notice folks can not spell much today without microsoft word spell checher handy? Why do folks do well with Val M, duh, is it because they still read the racing form?
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Old 08-27-2006, 09:33 PM   #19
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I'm sorry

Thank You for you opinion
I am working on being able to use my eyeball scan
and use the DRF when needed
I am a little hurt that you feel I would fudge my lines
after the fact, Problem is then it was voodoo that I picked the
winner in the FNRW hours before and posted it hours before, And if it was so clear to the public why did it pay $25.00??? You opinion is noted
Good Skill
Bill V
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Old 08-27-2006, 09:42 PM   #20
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another 11 furlong race another program

Here is another one that worked out OK
this time I used Vector (val3 windows)
again the key APV-CR are added to the BL/BL
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Last edited by admin; 08-27-2006 at 09:47 PM.
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