'Running Style' Discussion - Changed Styles - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 05-17-2012, 08:05 AM

Ted...

Quirin Speed points and designation still not addressed ...

**Note: this discussion was moved from the Beta Testing Forum (i.e. not a BUG as is, but worthy of a discussion on concept)

Ted Craven · 05-17-2012, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Ted...

Quirin Speed points and designation still not addressed ...

Noted, in Beta 2.5-04, nothing new compared to previous.

Re above example, what should the Quirin Speed Points be? Are you pointing out a bug in the formula?

From a pre-race stance, what should the default Running Style designation be for this horse: Early, or Ugly (or ...)? And why?

Ted

mikesal57 · 05-18-2012, 09:22 AM

Ted...

It looks like your calculations on "points" are correct...

But the "running designation" needs to be looked at..

lsosa54 · 05-18-2012, 01:23 PM

Don't know about the QSP's, but this horse would be an E for me as it had the lead in the 1st 2 calls in each of his two "good" races showing. As for breaking his maiden, I think they would have to re-open Caliente or ship to the Boise bush tracks, because based on his recent form and his 0-16 record, probably not happening at PEN.

lsosa54 · 05-18-2012, 01:26 PM

Don't know about the QSP's, but this horse would be an E for me as it had the lead in the 1st 2 calls in each of his two "good" races showing. As for breaking his maiden, I think they would have to re-open Caliente or ship to the Boise bush tracks, because based on his recent form and his 0-16 record, probably not happening at PEN. So he would an E with no form for me.

Not sure how RDSS calculates but everyone seems to do their visual running style designations with a slight difference(BRIS, PaceAppraiser, CJ, HDW, etc.)

Ted Craven · 05-18-2012, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Ted...

It looks like your calculations on "points" are correct...

But the "running designation" needs to be looked at..

Well, there's a question as to what you want a Running Style designation to tell you ... I would say, I want it to suggest how the horse will likely run positionally at the various call points in TODAY's race, which must surely be a function of how it has done recently.

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Size: 107.8 KB

Consider the horse's March 23 race, after having run 1st or 2nd at the 2st call in the preceding 6 races. No disagreement, I'm sure, that he would be easily designated as E / Early going into that race. What about the April 12 race? Anyone can have a bad day (i.e. the previous bad race) - probably everyone would agree to still treat it as a likely Early horse.

Then looking at its last race, after 2 bad races, do we still expect this horse to take the lead (i.e. going into the April 28 race)? Or will we relegate it to mid-pack or worse, like its previous 2 races. Is it still an Early horse (in the matchup of April 28) or is it, as Lou says, a former Early who is now off form and won't be a part of the upfront pace, which analysis is why we even designate E horses in the first place?

So - going into today's race, with 3 duds under its belt, and running 4th of 11 and 3rd of 8 in its last 2 races, is it reasonable we should expect it to run as an Early horse today, and thus give it an E designation and cause us to spend mental time analysing the front runners including this horse? There were 4 other horses who showed more recent signs of taking the lead than this #1 horse.

As it turned out, this #1 horse won the race wire-to-wire. If it had lost again, should we have doggedly persisted in calling it an Early horse?

I don't know how to write a formula which will CONSISTENTLY predict which of a horse's former running styles will show up today - so, I use an average assessment over the entire PPs, with some emphasis on recent performance.

If someone can suggest an alternative which will be BROADLY applicable (i.e. treat this #1 as an Early today, but NOT a horse whose Early days seem far behind it) - then I am very willing to listen to a DETAILED approach.

I don't care that NewPace calls the horse Early, or BRIS. Look at a broad sample of NewPace so-called Early, or Late horses from a positional point of view and you will scratch your head.

If we had the capability to designate current and previous Running Style, I would certainly call this horse, formerly Early, currently Presser.

You would still have to decide, for whatever role Running Style plays in your analysis, which way it will run today given who it is facing.

Sometimes horses just jump up and do stuff.

Thoughts?

Ted

buzzm24 · 06-29-2012, 09:25 PM

Is there a thread that talks about the ESP designations? Do these correlate with RS?
I went back to some Follow Up back issues (#7 & #34) and just trying to get a better understanding.

Ted Craven · 07-03-2012, 10:04 PM

Buzz,

ESP, an acronym for Early/Sustained/Presser - or 3 ways of disbursing a horse's available energy - are really labels for a range of %Median.

%Median is a ratio of the percentage of the horses 'energy' (measured by Velocity / feet per second) in the first 2 fractions (i.e. those 2 fractions up to and including the 2nd call point) as a percentage of the horse's Total Energy (the sum of the 3 fractional velocities). Or -( F1+F2) / ( F1+F2+F3 ) = % Median.

Depending on distance, and on a horse's innate tendency, you will see ranges of %Median from 65% through 71% or so. The label under the column heading ESP can be E, EP, P, SP S or L (for Early, Early/Presser, Presser, Sustained Presser, Sustained and Late). Each label represents a range of %Median and intends to guide you to know how much - relatively - of a horse's Total Energy does it use up to the Second Call point (which is a different percentage of the total race distance depending on the race distance itself).

Here is a useful exercise I have recommended many times in the past. If you do it ONCE, you will know was ESP means (in an energy disbursement sense):

Take ONE race, one set of horses Past Performances. Look at the Energy screen for each horse. Make a spreadsheet for yourself (either electronic or paper, or back of the envelope). Make 6 columns and label them E - EP - P -SP - S - L. Now go down the PPs for each horse in the race and identify the ESP label. Note the corresponding %Median value and write it down in your spreadsheet in the column for the label. Write down ALL the %Median numbers for ALL races for EACH horse in the race in the corresponding column, by ESP label. If there are 10 horses and 10 lines for each, you will have 100 %Median numbers to write down.

For example:

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Line 1 is an ESP of P with %Median of 68.6. This means that 68.6% of the horses Total Energy of 153.3 was used up by the 2nd call (i.e. the 6f mark of today's 8f race - all race distances are projected to today's 8f route distance). So - record 68.6 under your P column. Similarly, the 2nd, 6th and 7th lines' %Median values will be recorded under your E Early column. The SP column will have values from the 4th and 9th lines, etc, etc.

As you continue to do this for all the rest of the horses in the race, you will see minimum and maximum range values for each ESP designation. This will help you to know what the label refers to by range of %Median.

Sometimes this information is useful and sometimes it is not. You may see that some horses ALWAYS give up their energy towards the front end, with E or EP designations representing 69+% of their Total Energy disbursed by the 2nd call. Others are ALWAYS in the later bracket. Remember that since a horse's actual race distances are adjusted to today's distance, some of the horse's adjusted %Medians are fabrications, so be aware of this and take with a grain of salt as required.

You will find a very good corollary to %Median in the Early/Late graph which also measures energy disbursement relative to the 2nd call point. In later software efforts, Dr Sartin tended to emphasize E/L over %Median, as the fine grained differentials tended to be 'too much information', whereas you can see from the graph 'sticks' if a horse is always on the Early side, or if one race is very early, and if the E/L graphs are typical for the horse and line chosen is a consistent one - you may see that a horse is the Earliest among Earlies, or the most opposite from the primary Win contenders on BLBL (i.e. a lone Late E/L number among predominantly Early contenders - thus an interesting candidate for Place or on-the-money despite lower Total Energy).

The foregoing is to advise that the Early/Late graph is almost a completely acceptable replacement for ESP (or %Median range) and more graphically descriptive. ESP is there for historical compatibility as much as anything.

ESP is distinct from RS Running Style - though using the same labels E,EP,P,SP,S - but refers to Positional tendency, not energy disbursement. A horse may have run several different Running styles, but as it matures, you will likely see a predominant style when it is fit, and when it faces a First and Second Call time it can handle. While RS is designated by the software based on an average Call1 position over its entire Past Performance, this designation is not sensitive enough to recent form, or declining form to be totally reliable (for me) out of the box. I would ALWAYS recommend scanning the horses and adjusting RS based on what Position you believe the horse will try for today (which is always a bit of a guess).

I find this Running Style evaluation useful to correlate Early energy disbursement (as shown by the E/L graphs or the Segments screen 0.0 at the Call1 or 2nd call) to where in the herd the horse will likely be running. A horse with BOTH Early position and Early energy (especially if it is unchallenged) is a definite MUST NOTE because that horse may have rather poorer 3rd faction or Late numbers and lower Total Energy - BUT it may comfortably set the pace, slow down, and thus distribute its greater Energy to the 2nd call over the remainder of the race (i.e. F3) and survive against other horses who appear to have better overall energy but who will simply not challenge this positionally AND energetically Early horse sufficiently.

The corollary to this is: a Positional Presser or Sustained horse who shows Early energy disbursement on the line(s) you have chosen. This can often be an 'anomaly' - a horse who looks to dominate Early (good Early E/L and ESP numbers) but who NEVER goes for the lead at the first or even 2nd call points. In this case, the good Early energy numbers can be a red-herring - i.e. nothing to worry about: i.e. the horse will NOT dominate teh herd from an energy point of view.

The difference between Positional ESP and Energy ESP is one of the classical schisms between the Brohamer-described 'school' of the Methodology (i.e. in Modern Pace Handicapping) and the Energy 'school' (i.e. relative energy/velocity disbursement patterns) of the 1990's Methodology. It is useful to have a grasp of BOTH streams of information, as sometimes a race comes down to knowing if anyone is going to chase that BOSS horse and catch him (positional), or if the lone opposite energy horse (E/L stick is the most opposite to primary contenders) will finish with a flourish and Place to a low odds favourite and provide the best (or ONLY) bet in the race, or a much better Exacta than Win pool wager.

Hoped that helped!

Ted

buzzm24 · 07-05-2012, 04:44 PM

Ted

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks

Tony

07-03-2012, 10:04 PM	#8
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Buzz, ESP, an acronym for Early/Sustained/Presser - or 3 ways of disbursing a horse's available energy - are really labels for a range of %Median. %Median is a ratio of the percentage of the horses 'energy' (measured by Velocity / feet per second) in the first 2 fractions (i.e. those 2 fractions up to and including the 2nd call point) as a percentage of the horse's Total Energy (the sum of the 3 fractional velocities). Or -( F1+F2) / ( F1+F2+F3 ) = % Median. Depending on distance, and on a horse's innate tendency, you will see ranges of %Median from 65% through 71% or so. The label under the column heading ESP can be E, EP, P, SP S or L (for Early, Early/Presser, Presser, Sustained Presser, Sustained and Late). Each label represents a range of %Median and intends to guide you to know how much - relatively - of a horse's Total Energy does it use up to the Second Call point (which is a different percentage of the total race distance depending on the race distance itself). Here is a useful exercise I have recommended many times in the past. If you do it ONCE, you will know was ESP means (in an energy disbursement sense): Take ONE race, one set of horses Past Performances. Look at the Energy screen for each horse. Make a spreadsheet for yourself (either electronic or paper, or back of the envelope). Make 6 columns and label them E - EP - P -SP - S - L. Now go down the PPs for each horse in the race and identify the ESP label. Note the corresponding %Median value and write it down in your spreadsheet in the column for the label. Write down ALL the %Median numbers for ALL races for EACH horse in the race in the corresponding column, by ESP label. If there are 10 horses and 10 lines for each, you will have 100 %Median numbers to write down. For example: Line 1 is an ESP of P with %Median of 68.6. This means that 68.6% of the horses Total Energy of 153.3 was used up by the 2nd call (i.e. the 6f mark of today's 8f race - all race distances are projected to today's 8f route distance). So - record 68.6 under your P column. Similarly, the 2nd, 6th and 7th lines' %Median values will be recorded under your E Early column. The SP column will have values from the 4th and 9th lines, etc, etc. As you continue to do this for all the rest of the horses in the race, you will see minimum and maximum range values for each ESP designation. This will help you to know what the label refers to by range of %Median. Sometimes this information is useful and sometimes it is not. You may see that some horses ALWAYS give up their energy towards the front end, with E or EP designations representing 69+% of their Total Energy disbursed by the 2nd call. Others are ALWAYS in the later bracket. Remember that since a horse's actual race distances are adjusted to today's distance, some of the horse's adjusted %Medians are fabrications, so be aware of this and take with a grain of salt as required. You will find a very good corollary to %Median in the Early/Late graph which also measures energy disbursement relative to the 2nd call point. In later software efforts, Dr Sartin tended to emphasize E/L over %Median, as the fine grained differentials tended to be 'too much information', whereas you can see from the graph 'sticks' if a horse is always on the Early side, or if one race is very early, and if the E/L graphs are typical for the horse and line chosen is a consistent one - you may see that a horse is the Earliest among Earlies, or the most opposite from the primary Win contenders on BLBL (i.e. a lone Late E/L number among predominantly Early contenders - thus an interesting candidate for Place or on-the-money despite lower Total Energy). The foregoing is to advise that the Early/Late graph is almost a completely acceptable replacement for ESP (or %Median range) and more graphically descriptive. ESP is there for historical compatibility as much as anything. ESP is distinct from RS Running Style - though using the same labels E,EP,P,SP,S - but refers to Positional tendency, not energy disbursement. A horse may have run several different Running styles, but as it matures, you will likely see a predominant style when it is fit, and when it faces a First and Second Call time it can handle. While RS is designated by the software based on an average Call1 position over its entire Past Performance, this designation is not sensitive enough to recent form, or declining form to be totally reliable (for me) out of the box. I would ALWAYS recommend scanning the horses and adjusting RS based on what Position you believe the horse will try for today (which is always a bit of a guess). I find this Running Style evaluation useful to correlate Early energy disbursement (as shown by the E/L graphs or the Segments screen 0.0 at the Call1 or 2nd call) to where in the herd the horse will likely be running. A horse with BOTH Early position and Early energy (especially if it is unchallenged) is a definite MUST NOTE because that horse may have rather poorer 3rd faction or Late numbers and lower Total Energy - BUT it may comfortably set the pace, slow down, and thus distribute its greater Energy to the 2nd call over the remainder of the race (i.e. F3) and survive against other horses who appear to have better overall energy but who will simply not challenge this positionally AND energetically Early horse sufficiently. The corollary to this is: a Positional Presser or Sustained horse who shows Early energy disbursement on the line(s) you have chosen. This can often be an 'anomaly' - a horse who looks to dominate Early (good Early E/L and ESP numbers) but who NEVER goes for the lead at the first or even 2nd call points. In this case, the good Early energy numbers can be a red-herring - i.e. nothing to worry about: i.e. the horse will NOT dominate teh herd from an energy point of view. The difference between Positional ESP and Energy ESP is one of the classical schisms between the Brohamer-described 'school' of the Methodology (i.e. in Modern Pace Handicapping) and the Energy 'school' (i.e. relative energy/velocity disbursement patterns) of the 1990's Methodology. It is useful to have a grasp of BOTH streams of information, as sometimes a race comes down to knowing if anyone is going to chase that BOSS horse and catch him (positional), or if the lone opposite energy horse (E/L stick is the most opposite to primary contenders) will finish with a flourish and Place to a low odds favourite and provide the best (or ONLY) bet in the race, or a much better Exacta than Win pool wager. Hoped that helped! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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05-17-2012, 08:05 AM	#1
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	'Running Style' Discussion - Changed Styles Ted... Quirin Speed points and designation still not addressed ... *Note: this discussion was moved from the Beta Testing Forum (i.e. not a BUG as is, but worthy of a discussion on concept) Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-18-2012 at 04:46 PM. Reason: thread relocated from RDSS2 Beta Testing Forum*

05-18-2012, 09:22 AM	#3
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Ted... It looks like your calculations on "points" are correct... But the "running designation" needs to be looked at.. Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

05-18-2012, 01:23 PM	#4
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Don't know about the QSP's, but this horse would be an E for me as it had the lead in the 1st 2 calls in each of his two "good" races showing. As for breaking his maiden, I think they would have to re-open Caliente or ship to the Boise bush tracks, because based on his recent form and his 0-16 record, probably not happening at PEN.

05-18-2012, 01:26 PM	#5
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Don't know about the QSP's, but this horse would be an E for me as it had the lead in the 1st 2 calls in each of his two "good" races showing. As for breaking his maiden, I think they would have to re-open Caliente or ship to the Boise bush tracks, because based on his recent form and his 0-16 record, probably not happening at PEN. So he would an E with no form for me. Not sure how RDSS calculates but everyone seems to do their visual running style designations with a slight difference(BRIS, PaceAppraiser, CJ, HDW, etc.)

06-29-2012, 09:25 PM	#7
buzzm24 Grade 3 Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 57	Is there a thread that talks about the ESP designations? Do these correlate with RS? I went back to some Follow Up back issues (#7 & #34) and just trying to get a better understanding.

07-05-2012, 04:44 PM	#9
buzzm24 Grade 3 Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 57	Ted This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks Tony