Omar's post Derby rant

[omar]

Good luck Omar,,,,,I got some nice extra derby money after that 5th race at santa anita and your maiden system play......14-1 over 22-1.....I got the 688 exacta and win and place,,but i didnt bet the tri that paid 1500 and change...lol...

-----Original Message-----
From: NEIL BROAT
Sent: May 4, 2019 5:02 PM
To: Tom Sobczak
Cc: Gene Todaro
Subject: my derby bets

$1 Triple 1-5-13-14
over 1-5-13-14
over 1-3-5-8-9-13-14-17-18-19-20 Cost $108


$2 exacta box 1-5-13-14 $24
2$ exacta 1-5-13-14
over 3-8-9-17-18-19-20 Cost $56
and reversed it Cost $56
$2 exacta saver 1-5-13-14 / 7,15 Cost $16



may the horse be with me

Say, a win is a win is a win but don't tell that to the 14 horse. I didn't care for the 7 and he didn't disappoint me when he crossed over my 1 horse. He cut the fast fractions himself, he's a long sprinter! They took him down and rightfully so and when they did i backed into a $3009 exacta plus i put loose deuces on all my double digit contenders and now own the 2nd longest win price in Derby history, $132.
Omar, the Master maiden killer

My Derby Analysis
The Pretenders(early targets): Gray Magician,Tax,Maximum Security,Cutting Humor, Game Winner, Vekoma, Bodexpress and Master Fencer. They go out,they create a moderately honest pace. And they start to fade after 6F. A WORD ABOUT MAXIMUM SECURITY. IN HIS LAST RACE AND ONLY ROUTE HE CAUGHT A FIELD DEVOID OF SPEED AND USED HIS SPRINT SPEED TO WIRE THE FIELD AND CATCH THEM NAPPING. THE 2\5 SHOT IN THAT RACE, WHOM I DIDN'T LIKE,HIDDEN SCROLL REMEMBER HIM, DIDN'T EVEN LIFT A HOOF. NUFF SAID.WELL THEY WONT BE NAPPING HERE!!



The Contenders(the pressers): War of Will, Tacitus,Improbable, Long Range Toddy, Spinoff, Plus Que Parfait( A Horse For Course Horse),By My Standards and Roadster. These guys pick up the pieces going into the far turn, raising the heat on the pace of race to the top of the stretch.
The Closers (other contenders): Code of Honor, Win,Win,Win, Country House.



The Question( track condition): IF THE TRACK STAYS FAST, I FAVOR WIN,WIN,WIN OVER CODE OF HONOR OVER ALL THE PRESSERS AND COUNTRY HOUSE. HOWEVER IF THE TRACK IS SLOPPY OR MUDDY THEN I FAVOR IMPROBABLE AND WAR OF WILL OVER THE 3 CLOSERS AND OTHER PRESSERS. WHO DO I LIKE BETTER, THE #5 OR #1. I'M LIKE THE GUY ON THE ARMORTEC COMMERCIAL, I'LL NEVER TELL. THE VALUE IN BETTING THE DERBY IS SO GOOD THAT IT'S WORTH BETTING 4 HORSES IN THE TOP POSITION IN YOUR EXACTAS, TRIPLES AND SUPERS.


A WORD ABOUT ME. I DON'T LOOK AT BEYER NUMBERS, BREEDING, CONSENSUS OR COMPUTER PICKS, OR LISTEN TO THE TALKING HEADS ON T.V. I PICKS ME PACELINES,THE WAY I'VE BEEN DOING IT FOR THE LAST 35 YEARS AND I'M DAMN GOOD AT IT I MIGHT ADD, AND I NOTE HOW THE TRACK IS PLAYING, THEN I EITHER CASH OR CRY. WHATTYA GONNA DO.

[coacht]

congrats Omar,

Nice exacta hit in the Derby and the SA maiden race.

Your book How to Master maiden races produced another big score.

[CheckMark]

Did you hit any of the maiden races on sat or sun Omar?

[omar]

Only played CD on Saturday and would you believe it I didn't even notice there was a maiden race at first, so once I couldn't get my "information", I passed.
On a normal day I pass on Santa Anita because of all the chalk.
The connections of the 7 say they're passing on Pimlico, no wait tell them to run him and i'll get a better price on the other horses.

Look, I ran the Sartin numbers on the race and the top SP horses were as follows: #14 56.78 off his 1/19 race, #7 56.36 off his 2/20 race,#1 56.20 off his 9/16/18 race. Why did I use the 7f race on the #14 & #7? #14 last race was a lot of trouble and his second back the horse was off 49 days and first time at route although he did transfer his sprint speed to route speed.
#7 last race was a joke. Hidden Scroll didn't run so all the closers were up against it. So I used his 2nd race back. And #1 likes it wet so I see no reason not to use that race AND BESIDES HORSES THAT CAN WIN ON OR NEAR THE LEAD ON TURF TEND TO RUN GOOD ON SLOPPY TRACKS AND HE SHOWS IT IN HIS WORKS AND RACES.
HAD THE 7 NOT TRIED TO CLOSE THE HOLE THAT OPENED AT THE TOP OF STRETCH, BELIEVE ME THAT 1 WAS HOME FREE, BUT ONCE THAT 7 CAME IN FRONT OF HIM, HE LOST HIS ACTION AS DID THE 18 AND 20 ALTHOUGH IT WASN'T AS SEVERE FOR THE 20.
#20 just woke up and ran his best #. That's what 2 & 3 year olds do. Today he liked the slop, ran within 7 lengths of the pace and kept on going.
Omar