winners LPR

[Bill V.]

Hey Mitch
If you want , I can post the full PP's
for the race .
Is original on top and phase 1 on bottom okay or do you want another screen too?
Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook
This is from the pace line selection chapter in the original
Pace Makes The Race,
Tom Hamilton is writing,
"If the condition of the track was other than fast, this may or may not affect the total pace rating , we can adjust for slow surfaces , but some horses just refuse to perform in the wet. In this particular case , I would look at the second line if the distance is similar and it was as good effort. The same can be said for an extremely fast or hard track
with say a variant of 6"

[Mitch44]

Bill V.; I'm good with what was there ( PP's) and would have had it and a good line. As Doc said on many horses a different line will still get the horse in the top two such as this case therefore you can't necessarily say one particular line is correct. One is better but both can be correct Bill.

If you can't get 3 screens perhaps you can get two. I seldom use the BL /BL one for one horse and two different lines. My preference would be for the other two also in your case. Check with Ted on the number of screens because I believe he made a post on how to set this up. Also my CP went from 3 to 1 one time for no reason and he helped me get it back through the settings.

Using the multiple screens does help with line selections and when looking at E & L, I also have the TPR which I look at in certain situations in selecting lines and decisions etc. You can do a little more with that then say a BL BL etc. as far as interpretation so I usually consult it. While it was only Phase 1 it still remains a valuable tool and should be in everyone's toolbox.

Mitch44

[cigar]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Cigar asked this question over in the match up contest area
I wanted to answer it here so we can see how this goes going forward.

here is the question

Cigar wrote.


My answer .
Unfortunately all my data base records are from 1 track only = Parx
Also that database is on a virus infected computer at home in San Diego
I did not bring it with me while I am out on the road
Besides the database there is not much else of any good on that computer
so I have kind of put it on the back self of the storage in my brain.

But lets say I told you it was over 95%. for ALL horse all distances and surfaces It is probably higher.
Lets do this instead, Lets just look at 2 completely different races.
both are practice races so they are posted here to verify

The first race is a route for older male horses at Keeneland
The second is a low level 6250 Claimer n-3 for 3+F at Gulfstream

There were 20 horses in these two races
These 20 horses had 32 wins showing in their RDSS2.1 PP's

Of those 32 wins only 1 win was earned with a LP lower than 80
That was Horse 7 from GP That horse is a 3 year old filly which tend to run higher early to late numbers

Here is my work up You can check just about any race in the TPR forum were the phase numbers are posted in the PP's and we can add to this list but I think its going to be clear a horse who has trouble getting higher than 80 LPRs is a low win probability

 Keene Race Horse 1    Line 8 LPR 98
           Horse 2    Line 1 LPR 95.6 
                      Line 2 LPR 95
           Horse 3    Line 1 LPR 89.6
                      Line 2 LPR 87.5
                      Line 3 LPR 87.5
           Horse 4    Line 8 LPR 92.5
                      Line 10 LPR 90+
           Horse 5    Line 1  LPR 98.2
                      line 4  LPR 95.6
           Horse 6    Line 8  LPR 89.6
           Horse 7    Line 5  LPR 90.6
           Horse 8    Line 4  LPR 87
                      Line 5  LPR 83.5
           Horse 9    Line 7  LPR 80.5
                      Line 8  LPR 87.0
           Horse 10   Line 2  LPR 90.5
                      Line 7  LPR 91.6
           Horse 11   Line 8  LPR 87.0
           Horse 12   Line 5  LPR 95
                      Line 7  LPR 83.7 

GP Race 5  6250 Claimer 3+F
           Horse 1    Line 10 LPR 94.8
           Horse 2    No wins 
           Horse 3    Line 5  LPR 81
                      Line 10 LPR 84.5
           Horse 4    Line 5  LPR 90.1
           Horse 5    Line 2  LPR 82
                      line 10 LPR 84
           Horse 6    Line 6  LPR 96.5
           Horse 7    Line 2  LPR 76.1 3 year old philly 
                      Line 4  LPR 86
           Horse 8    Line 1  LPR 84
                      Line 3  LPR 83

Thanks Bill for your insights and response into my inquire. This forum has been a great learning tool and I would like to thank everyone who has contributed, for the grater good. I know I am late to the party but I wanted to do my own evaluation. I am focusing on WO this year and forty races have ran to date.

After my analysis Bill statement hold true to form. However I do agree with others using Lpr 80+ to solely eliminate contenders may not be prudent.

Total Race Ran: 40 - keep in mind races carded are 5 - 7 furlongs

100% of the races won the LPR was above 80+

Early - Wire to Wire winners: 11 - 27.5%

Early Presser: 7 - 17.5%

[Bill V.]

I plan on doing a test
Something was mentioned to me in a PM

I recently picked a line 5 back which was the acceptable line
The problem is the line before the line I used had a LPR of 54
All the races before that line were turf sprints.
The PM said If I was working the race the day of the paceline
The only paceline would be the paceline with a 54 LPR
We went back and forth and I think we agreed that the 54 LPR race was aberrant. But It got us thinking should we use a race for a pace line with a sub 80 LPR or are we just projecting that there are no signs the horse has the ability to run a 80 lpr TODAY

I have been thinking of running a test of how many lines selected by Ted's BLT/preceptor show a LPR of less than 80 and that horse wins the upcoming race.

Here is an example In this race from Sunland Park The BLT Preceptor best of last 3 picked line 3. That line shows a 79 LPR
If this horse wins I will mark it as a such A win line with less than a 80 LPR I would like some help .
If you use the BLT/Preceptor and you get a winning horse with a paceline LPR
under 80 Please note it for me ,
Thank you
Bill

[Bill V.]

Here are the pace lines for the horses in Saturdays Sunland Card
These are horses whose pace lines were selected by the BLT preceptor
so a LPR less than 80
Lets see how they run Results 1 win Horse 1 race 10


Sundland 4/23 UPDATED

Race 4 5.5 Dirt CLs 7.5 N2-Y 3+F
Horse 1 Line 2 127 days ago 78.6 LPR 6/1

Race 5 6.0 Dirt CL 7.5 N2-6m 3 +
Horse 4 Line 1 28 days ago 76.8 LPR 6/1

Race 7 8.3 Dirt CL 3.5 N1-4M 3+
Horse 2 Line 3 157 days ago 79.1 LPR 7/2
Horse 4 Line 3 25 days ago 68.3 LPR 3/1

Race 8 6.5 Dirt CL 7.5 N1-6m 3+f
Horse 3 Line 1 39 days ago 74.5 LPR 10/1

Race 9 8.0 Dirt CL 5 N2-M 3 +
Horse 3 Line 2 35 days ago 78.3 LPR 5/2
Horse 5 Line 1 17 days ago 79.2 LPR 3/1
Horse 4 Line 3 32 days ago 64.5 LPR 8/1

Race 10 6.0 MS32 3+
Horse 6 Line 1 35 days ago 78.4 LPR 5/2 SCR
Horse 1 Line 1 20 days ago 78.7 LPR 4/1 Wins @.80 $3.60
Horse 8 Line 3 109 days ago 72.2 LPR 10/1
Horse 7 Line 1 11 days ago 75.0 LPR 15/1 Scr

Total horses 10 Total wins 1

[Lt1]

Hi Bill I did 8 at Aqu today all winners over 80. I'll help you out.
Tim