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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 10-09-2018, 12:32 PM   #31
Mitch44
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The Sartin standard:

The "Doc's"standard to be a teacher or standard for success was to achieve a 65% win rate using a two horse betting technique. An admiral goal that few obtained and still a gold standard. Not an easy task and one few today can achieve.
Now if these are the best that means a 35 % lost rate. This is with their knowledge to stay out of certain types of races and situations based on their experience and record keeping.


It is a fact that horses over 20-1 only win in the 20 to 25% range but we'll call it 20%, also a fact that horses coming back off layoffs over 90 days win about 10% of their races. Just on these two factors alone a bettor is giving up at least 30% before any handicapping. And this isn't an all exclusive list! What about horses stretching out to a new distance or cutting back to a new distance?


While some of these may be included in the Sartin standard of 35% lost rate not all are included in that. Just 90 day horses and 20-1 horses alone account for at least 30%. When one adds other angles or the game's variables this is not a happy picture or a winning one.( stretch outs etc.)


Do you really want to give up over 30% going into a race? Every race is its own puzzle to be solved by the handicapper. I don't give anything up going into a race as its not a winning formula and similar to playing Russian roulette with a gun. Probably not a happy ending.


These situation handicapping problems are only a problem if you perceive them to be a problem, and with that perception your brain is steered toward a loss. He was big on the Phycology aspect as Bill V. noted recently in his Sartin birthday post.


Here is another of my recent over 90 day winners and I have posted a bunch of them, also a horse with a very bad line in last two that won.



2018-10-07 10:27:10 Bet Belmont 1Win $5.00 #5 $5.00 $42.50 2018-10-07 10:05:37 Bet Keeneland 1Exacta $1.00 6 / 1 + 4 $2.00 2018-,10-07 10:05:01 Bet Keeneland 1Win $5.00 BX 1 + 4 $10.00 $44.50

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Last edited by Mitch44; 10-09-2018 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 10-09-2018, 12:49 PM   #32
Mitch44
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In the example above the # 6 horse was off 99 days and won.


Obviously the best horse in the race and another of those 20% that win. Lt1 had it on top but decided to wager cap the race.

I myself demand higher odds on long layoff horses to compensate for the risk reward. Although I would not have eliminated this horse if playing a P3 etc.


BTY Sartin said once a horse is off over 30 days it doesn't make any difference if it is off a year or 365 days. How many of us play horses off over 30 days and under 90 days?

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Old 10-09-2018, 01:45 PM   #33
Bill V.
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30 - 90

Hello Mitch

Congrats on the winner the other day

Mitch, I play any horse off less than 90 days that has a plus pacelines
withing the 3 months /90 days

I am not a strict as FTL is, as I explained I went to line 3 which was
99 days ago, I did this because this was the 3rd race in this form cycle
and I like to see the 2 sprints than a route pattern 3rd off a layoff
I believe Mark is a fan of this pattern too

Happy to be playing Parx

Bill
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Old 10-09-2018, 01:54 PM   #34
Lt1
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Mitch I always enjoy your well written and thought out post. Some very interesting approaches by several of our senior members.
Tim
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Old 10-09-2018, 02:09 PM   #35
Bill V.
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Horses

Hello Tim

I appreciate you and Mitch's work as well
I am happy all are getting lessons that fit them best

Good Skill today at PARX
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Old 10-09-2018, 02:20 PM   #36
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,


I also would have used line 3 for the # 6 horse which was 99 days ago. I do not use number of days as a consideration for choosing pace lines. The distance and surface take priority and the Preceptor over number of days.


Ditto for contenders as to the number of days as other things are more important and take precedence, and also the last race finish.


Glad your doing better Bill, hit that beach.


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Old 10-09-2018, 02:49 PM   #37
Lt1
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Hi Bill. Just hit a $35 winner in r4 and a $164 dd So far my 2nd pick has won each of the 1st 4. Glad I'm a 2 horse better. How you doing at SA this meet?
Tim
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Old 10-09-2018, 02:56 PM   #38
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi Bill. Just hit a $35 winner in r4 and a $164 dd So far my 2nd pick has won each of the 1st 4. Glad I'm a 2 horse better. How you doing at SA this meet?
Tim
That $35 winner was the top Early on the E/L graph by a mile... and it was in excellent visual form. All it needed a favorable matchup to run huge again, and it was a clear cut winner cutting the corner turning for home.


Excellent pick, Tim!
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Old 10-09-2018, 03:03 PM   #39
Bill V.
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Good work in race 4

Hello Tim and Tim

Yes, the 3 treated us all well in race 3 !!

Sadly I gave it all back and then some in my Pick 4

The 2 at 10/1 is right there too

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Old 10-09-2018, 03:25 PM   #40
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Here was my tickets
completed fc748a75d2 parx r3 $2double 125wt1357 bet $24 ret$164.60 +$140.60
completed 4c58c46bce parx r4 $5wp 3/5 bet $20 ret$128 +$108
Now to show everyone how dumb I can get in r5 I had the winner tiered 2 but, genius that I am, I moved him down to 4th based on non Sartin form factors I used. Cost me a $22 winner. From hero to goat in less then 2 mins lol Can't complain since I do this all the time. Sometimes you eat the bear sometimes the bear eats you.
Tim
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