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05-11-2019, 11:17 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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"There is no value anymore in horse racing."
I have heard it over and over. They claim that, ever since the Beyer speed figures became available to the public, there is no value anymore. Is that really true? I see long shots still winning. How come the public does not get them with the Beyer figures in their hands?
Race 8th at Gulfstream, on 5/11, is a prime example. I had the exacta, which is actually my biggest to date.
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Paul |
05-11-2019, 11:30 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi
Hey Paul
Way to go,, fantastic hit |
05-12-2019, 07:48 AM | #3 | |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Quote:
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Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven |
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05-12-2019, 10:16 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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polambi, NICE score.
Keep it up and good luck. Rmath |
05-12-2019, 10:26 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Depends how you define "value". Certainly, before Beyer numbers became "public", he and others who made their own speed numbers and those like Ragozin who made their own "performance" numbers could almost bet the "best" speed number in the race and show +EV. As these numbers became public and part of computer data bases, they became overbet and the "value" disappeared.
Just because a longshot bet wins does not mean it is "value" in a statistical sense. In fact, there has always been a slight (not enough to overcome the takeout) favorite/longshot bias where you lose less randomly betting favorites versus randomly betting longshots. Value is in the eye of the beholder: if you are getting an 8% rebate as some of the larger syndicates do, there may be value betting a 1-1 shot that has an estimated 50% chance of winning. Value should be looked at statistically: is the implied probability of winning the bet based on the odds offered higher than my estimated probability of winning the bet: that is, if I think the bet wins 20% of the time and I can get more than 4-1, there is value. Similarly, if I estimate the bet will win 50% of the time and I can get 6-5, there is value. High odds and payout do not necessarily indicate value. The bigger issue in horse racing is, with takeout and breakage 20% or higher, and the large rebate syndicates receiving chunky rebates so their bets are designed to show a small loss before rebates, is there any pool left to show a statistical edge, and hence, "value". Remember, there is a lot of randomness to horse racing. Do not confuse longshots with +EV (value). Richard |
05-12-2019, 10:42 AM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Its only words and that is all
Nonsense Richard
When Paul bet his $30 I can't speak for him but I really do think he gave a rats hiney about anybody but himself and how HE could make money in THE race HE decided to bet HE bet $30 and got back $700 What the heck, I know I don't worry about guys making 8% rebates when I turn $30 into $700 |
05-12-2019, 11:06 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Nice score Paul.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
05-12-2019, 11:26 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Bill V.:
It is unfortunate that you do not understand the concept of +EV. I will be gentle in this forum, but you are wrong and my post is not nonsense. Your opinion does not matter. If you continue to bet with a negative expectation, you will lose. Period. That is not my opinion, that is statistical fact. Ignore it at peril to your bankroll. Richard |
05-12-2019, 12:26 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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You are correct
Hi Richard
Yes, you are correct I have no idea of EV. I probably the dimmest member of the group, You say my bankroll is in peril ,LOL I have to take offense to that. I have been betting using the Sartin Methodology since 1997 I follow Doctor Howard Sartin's guidelines as far as betting, It has served me very well. The only time when my bankroll ever was in peril was when after I got sick I was not able to fully implement Doc's teaching because I was heavily medicated, Now I am back to a hefty bankroll, I hardly ever make win bets. I now play pick 4's and Pick 5's in groups of about 3 or 4 other associates. The things that knock us out of winning tickets. Is DQ's, and horses with no indictive pacelines that suggest a strong effort in our sequence TODAY. I really don't care what ANYBODY ELSE DOES It's my money, I have enough skill thanks to Doctor Howard Sartin to know a good bet from a bad bet . |
05-12-2019, 07:41 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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Hi Bill
Hi Bill. It's been a while. Glad to hear you're doing better. Thanks for your words of encouragement.
My intent in posting, was to just remind folks that there is still money to be made in horse racing, if we are selective in picking the races that we bet and if we don't "copy" the crowd. Keep it up, Bill.
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Paul |
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