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07-09-2011, 10:04 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Confusion, on possible Early horse
I attach the following and let you decide if this horse would be an early horse, I think so, but the program does not, and this is fine , but f so then I was curious as to why it was not designated as such, this way I can better understand it, please
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07-09-2011, 10:23 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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best
Patrick the horse prefers to be on the lead. By position it would be early.
But the program is looking at how it uses its early and late energy excertion Your second screen shot nails this horses ability in graphics but its not gonna make much money fading like these races show Its 2 early side races on the E/L screen are near the center line meaning it used its energy just slighty more early than late In the other races the late numbers are bigger than its early numbes The proram calls this horse OTE or in its rankings SUS and Late If I were the trainer I'd drop it down to about a 79 race rating 7.0 distance race But 6.0 on the turf might work Bill V. Houston Tx. Last edited by Bill V.; 07-09-2011 at 10:29 PM. |
07-10-2011, 01:54 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Thank you Bill, so I kinda understand your reply, but still have the question of why the horse is not early as he has the lead every time, yes, I know his energy level is to fade badly because of this, but would he not be early anyway.
I now have the exact opposite scenario and was wondering why this horse has a early designation , when he is clearly a SP/S or Late horse. I think maybe I am not understanding the process, maybe, but to me a horse taking the lead on the stretch or finish is a late horse, but is that his energy is disbursement is different, if so then I need another lesson here as i am totally confused, please explain this so I can understand this, thank you
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07-11-2011, 10:12 AM | #4 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Fort Erie, Ontario
Posts: 9
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Sorry to bother the board with this, PK could you please e-mail at
growingempire@cogeco.ca Thanks. (sorry again) |
07-11-2011, 02:16 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Hi John,
long time no see. How are you? |
07-11-2011, 02:37 PM | #6 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Fort Erie, Ontario
Posts: 9
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I am doing terrific. How about you???
Getting excited about Saratoga. take care john |
07-11-2011, 02:41 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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looks early to me
Hi Patrick
In the race you used ( line 1) look at the E/l red stick, its way to the right with a +22 meaning ext. early Now look at the Pace of Race from that line The horse was in the 5th and 3rd position but ran hard to keep up to a very fast pace 21 and 44 The race was a 6.5 distance. which has a longer late measurement than todays 6.0 distance so your horse used a ton of energy early to stay with the leaders so Its energy excertion is Early it ran a good race ??? to be 5th against that pace of race and move up and win Bill V. Haittesburg MS. Last edited by Bill V.; 07-11-2011 at 02:50 PM. |
07-11-2011, 04:27 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Ok Bill
Let me see if I got this right then, 1st. On the #2 horse Bold Affair, he looks to be a absolutely Late Horses, are in agreement there? 2nd. To me he is because he takes the lead in the stretch and goes on to win, but then there is the TPR + Early/Late Differential Screen showing the horse as a Early Horse, with the very long Red Early indicator, but I must be MIS-INTERPRETING THIS SCREEN. 3rd Ok , to me it looks like this horse uses his energy in the late part of the race to catch up and pass everyone else, and in the first part of the race he rates and gallops along waiting to pounce in the stretch drive ,to me this is a late horse. 4th Are you stating to me that the horse used his energy in the 1st 2 calls to catch up and take the lead, thus the energy distribution is in the first half of the race, thus the RED Line Indicator in the TPR Screen, so I have been reading things backwards kinda. 5th so a red line means the horse is using its energy ( most of it's energy) in the beginning of the race if a RED Line, and that it is using most of it's energy late if a Blue Line, but that a Blue line horse is actually a Early horse, because his energy is used up late, very confusing to me, and not what I always thought the screen , was showing me 6th to me Red meant Early Horses, more red line bigger early hiorse 7th Blue line meant Late Horse, more blue line bigger Late Horse 8th to me, according to the paceline (PP'S) it clearly shows Bold Affair to be a Late horse, am I correct is assuming this, yet the RED Line shows him an Early horse, yet it is the reverse for the TPR screen 9th Sorry for not understanding this for all this time I been using the program, to me it seemed very simple , Blue Late and Red Early 10th Now to me the paceline #4 seems to be in line with a Late horse and even shows a L designation too, and the PP's show a late move too, only thing ti seems to be identical to the move from paceline 1 am I wrong, both lines the horse took the lead in the stretch call, so the horse is a late horse, or maybe SP, at minimum , no?? Thanks for your patience Bill, just trying to figure it out correctly and very confused at the moment, yet still winning, amazing this program, to me I must say the colors are awesome and very stimulating to the eyes, at least to me, to see a 2nd itis horse with a bunch of green lines in the last call make it so easy to see, as well as good power moves too, but getting off course Patrick
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07-11-2011, 04:31 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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how to figure it out
Patrick, I’m going to take a shot at explaining this to you, even though Bill V did a good job.
Understand this first, all of these “energy” numbers are based on “time”. Time IS energy. In a 6f race there is the “1st call”, which is from the start to the 1/2 mile pole, then the “2nd call” which is from the start to the 1/4 pole and finally the “3rd call” which is from the 2nd call to the finish line. Now, the first thing you have to do is set up a “base line” from which to judge all horses equally. So, we will take “44 seconds” as the base time for a 6f race at the second call, which will equal 100. If a horses actual time at the second call is 44.0, then it gets 100. If the horses actual time at the second call is 45.0, then it gets 95. Each 1/5th of a second is equal to “1”. For every 1/5th of a second slower than 44.0 the horse runs at the second call, you subtract 1 from the base line of 44 or 100. The next step is to set up a “base line” for the final fraction or 3rd fraction. In a 6f race the final fraction base line is 22.0, which is equal to 100. Again, for every 1/5th of a second slower than 22.0 the horses actual time is in the final fraction, 1 point is subtracted from 100. Therefore, if a horse is on the lead at the second call in 46.0 and finishes the race in 1:12.0, it would get a rating of 90 at the second or early call. Now, it took the horse 27 seconds to run the final or 3rd fraction. Since 27 seconds is 5 FULL seconds or 25 5ths of a second slower than the base line of 22.0 for this distance, the horse would earn a rating of 75. When you add the two ratings together 90+75, you get a “total pace rating” or “combined pace rating” of 165. As Bill V mentioned and you can see the red and blue “sticks” on your RDSS display. This is arrived at by subtracting the final fraction rating from the early rating or 90-75, which gives you a positive or red stick of 15.0, since the horse was faster early than it was late. Now let’s take a look at a horse that is running in 5th place at the second call, beaten 5 lengths in a time of 45.0 seconds. When we calculate this horses time, we must add in the beaten lengths, so the horses actual time was 46.00, the same as the horse on the lead in the above example. Therefore, this horses early rating would be an identical 90. If this horse went on to win its race in a final time of 1:13.0 we would find that it took the same 27 5ths of a second to run the final fraction, which would earn it the identical rating of the horse in the above example of 75. The calculation would be 45.0 at the second call plus 1.0 second for the 5 beaten lengths = 46.0. The final fraction would be 1:13.0 minus 45.0 = 28 seconds, minus the 5 lengths it gained = 27.0 seconds, which is 5 full seconds slower than the base line of 22.0 seconds = a final fraction rating of 75. So the calculation would look like this, 90+75=165, exactly the same as the above horse. So you can see that although one horse had the lead at the second call and went on to win and the second horse was behind by 5 lengths at the second call and went on to win, BOTH horse used their energy in the exact same way. BOTH horses would get a “red stick” of 15.0. What you see “visually” is one thing, what you see based on time is another. Personally, the problem I have with all of this is, in a 6f race there are three distinct and equal parts to the race, the 1st call (the start to the first call), the second fraction (from the first call to the second call) and the 3rd fraction (from the second call to the finish). At the second call the race is 67% over, so why is this the “early” call? If this is what determines the “early” horse, what do you call the horse that was on the lead at the first call (assuming it was a different horse than the second call leader)?
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07-11-2011, 06:21 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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segments
Patrick Please read TFMs post slowly and think about what he is saying .
If you do I'm sure you will catch on soon. As for as visual running styles Thats a call you have to make What I call early might be a presser to somebody else Calling and marking running sytles is vital to being a raw matcher but if you try to out think the program and you start to lose it might be telling you that your not making the right call. The Red sticks show when the EPR number is higher than the LPR number The Blue sticks show when the LPR number is higher than the EPR number The bigger the stick from the center line the higher on number is from the other ranking As FTL says If a horse has a 95 EPR and a 80 LPR he will have a big red stick because his EPR is 15 bigger than his LPR If a Horse has a 90 EPR and a 95 LPR he will have a short blue stick because his LPR is 5 more than his EPR GS Bill V. Mobile AL. |
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