chuckg - November Learn to Win

[Bill V.]

here is the 9 horse

[chuckg]

$25 on 2b to Win/Place
$25 on 3 to Win/Place

Spot Play Router to Sprint

Scrolling the contenders I see the 3 horse ran in internal fraction to 6f in 113.7

I looked for all other contenders who have finished a 6f race in 113.7 competitively.

Here are the lines.

There are four earlies in this race and all take turns fighting for the lead and finishing second or third.

That was mess of tandems, but it shows the 4 and 7 to be the regular losers of every matchup.

On the BL/Bl they are all evenly matched.

If I eliminate the earlies and the perpetual tandem losers I am left with the 3 and 2b.

[chuckg]

Today they finished in the right order.

[Bill V.]

Chuckg
Nice call on the router gets you a $73 profit

[chuckg]

$50 to win on 4
$50 to place on 4

Favorite 1 is sprinter going route. But, today we have a field of nearly all earlies.


4 is the least early of them all and was leader in the least tandem race.


Comparing last two sprint lines between the 4 and 1 has the 4 on top.

[chuckg]

There it is again. All my contenders on the board but in the wrong order. Maybe I'll have to start putting in superfectas. And in the meantime, search the forum for threads on how to deal with early horses correctly.

[Bill V.]

Hi Chuck

Hope you find some helpful stuff about early favorites

I want to bring up something that was just shown to me the other night

look at the life time records for your contenders

1= 3/13
2= 4/74
4= 4/59
5= 2/25
7= 3/13

Not exactly a bunch of breeders cup runners

You have 5 Early runners -that is they use their Energy Early
In these cheap races you have to pay very close attention
to the first fraction and in all races !
Who is going to take control of the race at the start
Most of the vital readouts in RDSS and any program
are influanced by the 2nd fraction and second call
but how and who got to the lead at the 2nd call is very important

Here are some helpful screens

The segments screen

The Energy Early Pace Potentail ( not EPR )
and FX

Always check your FX readout as its a calculation of the 1st and 3rd fraction
with no 2nd fraction

In your race the winner is right there in F1 on the segments screen
Its in the top 3 E/EP and Its rated 5th on FX
with a balance toward early . you can tell this because it has a weak LP
and HE

All this would support a good case for the two top Early horses
nobody uses their energy OTE of your contenders

and thats how they ran

[chuckg]

Bill,
Thanks for the workup with my chosen lines. I went way back to line 7 on purpose for the 5 horse because it showed him getting the lead and taking control of the race at the stretch call. (At least compared to today's company). I backed off of him because he took forever to make it home from the stretch. There are also three other lines in his PP that had great early paces but then he took his sweet old time getting in. That scared me away from betting him.

That 7th back running line exactly matched his race today, second to first, as you pointed out. The way you had the segments screen sorted out would have won the race, especially in your use of the the second fraction. I notice that whenever I lose a race that I think is an obvious no-brainer at Finger Lakes it is to the horse that has command of the race at the top of the stretch on the segments or velocity screen. Even though I put that old line in there to try to make the 5 the winner, I went searching for a horse who could best the favorite, who wound up coming in second. I took my usual approach of assuming that with so may earlies this race would run late.

I wound up winning the last three races on the card, because two of them went other than early, and got paid for the pic3 at $67. If I had worked up the 6th the way you did the pic4 would have paid me $920.

I will print out your workup for next time.
Thanks again.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by chuckg

And in the meantime, search the forum for threads on how to deal with early horses correctly.

Attachment 31684

I have found that the hardest thing there is for the majority of people to do, is evaluate EARLY horses correctly.

I read a comment by a "pundit", whose name everyone would recognize, that said you could not make money betting early horses because they don't pay enough money. Well, there's one expert that has no idea what he is talking about. If it were not for early horses paying larger mutuals, I would be sleeping in the street!

Most people only land on early horses when they use a line from an early horse where it won or ran a very close 2nd or 3rd. I think the reason is obvious. When an early horse wins or runs a very close 2nd or 3rd, it is no longer real deficient in third fraction or in vdc. However, this is the reason early horses like these pay shorter prices.

In order to be successful, especially with early horses, you have to be able to determine if that early horse that fades (backs up) will control today's pace and go on to win. Not an easy thing to do.

I have written this MANY TIMES. "Hat" said horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse gets the lead. If no other horse can pass it, it wins.
Easy for "Hat" to say, right?
Well, it's easy for anyone once they gain an understanding.

Let me put it this way.
A person bets a closer. The early horse wins and the closer is never a factor.
Are they deterred from betting a closer in the next race? Not at all.
But if a person bets an early horse and it fades down the stretch, are they deterred from betting another early horse? You bet they are!
The commonly heard phrase would be something like "that blankity blank QUITTER!"
No body wants to bet on a horse that they think will fade coming down the stretch, but it doesn't matter to them if their closer doesn't close.
Somehow or another, that just doesn't make sense to me. A loss is a loss.

With millions of horses and hundreds of thousands of races in a database, I can tell you that 40% of all races are won by horses that are running 1,2,3 at the first call. I can also tell you that more than 70% of all races are won by horses running 1,2,3 at the second call. This information was gleaned from ALL races on ALL surfaces at ALL tracks.
Certainly, one should be aware of how horses are performing at the track(s) they play on a regular basis, but that is the overall picture. A starting point, if you will.

I know this doesn't answer your question about "how" to deal with early horses, but the answer does not lie in a simple one sentence answer. All I can tell you is this. If you ONLY rely on energy disbursement, you will not get the answer. That's not going to be a popular answer here, but it is the way it is.

And you better pay attention to the first call..
Although the second call has long been considered the "early" call, the race (at any distance) is mostly over at that point. For example, in a 6 furlong race, the race is 67% complete at the second call. In an 8 furlong race at the second call, the race is 75% complete. So what would you call the FIRST CALL? The first call IS THE EARLY CALL. It is the first call that sets the tone for the rest of the race.
Again, I will call on the "Hat". He often said "the race starts when the gates open". The gates don't open at the second call.

[chuckg]

$40 to win on 6
$60 to Place on 6

2 horse is favorite in this race, an Early Turf Router with massive class advantage going Dirt. First time at this distance and at this track. 0 for 2 lifetime on dirt.

We also have a sprinter going route. Last sprint line and only two route lines for the 3 show that he can wind up on the lead today by default.

The segments screen show the sprinter 3 finding himself loose on the lead in F1.

Not having ever had the lead, he is shown blowing up in F2 while the normally early 2 horse goes out to get him being followed by the 6.



In the stretch:
In 10 lines of PPs the 2 has been passed by 11 horses and only passed 2. In 10 lines of PPs the 6 has never been passed in the stretch and has passed 5 other horses.

BL/BL shows the 6 with an SR advantage advantage but doesn't do justice to the 2 because we only have a 9f line to work with.